If a war between India and Pakistan breaks out, will China really join Pakistan? Or should I put pressure on Islamabad not to fight India to protect its interests, such as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or other projects under other projects and road initiatives?
Indian Army using tanks during the 1965 Indian Park War (archive image)
China heard the shock wave in India when it announced its defense of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the Pahargam terrorist attack. On April 22, 26 people were killed when the gunmen opened fire on them at Baisaran Meadow. The resistance front is the exterior wall of Pakistan’s terrorist Lashkar-e-Taiba, but has denied this responsibility.
Will China support Pakistan in the war?
China’s announcement has confused many analysts and diplomatic observers as tensions between India and Pakistan continue to escalate. If a war between India and Pakistan breaks out, will China really join Pakistan? Or should I put pressure on Islamabad not to fight India to protect its interests, such as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or other projects under other projects and road initiatives? Among many other projects, Beijing has invested more than $60 billion in CPEC.
Why is Pakistan important to China?
Pakistan is China’s all-weather friend and a strategic partner for economic and security reasons due to its geopolitical existence. It could provide Beijing with a naval base in Gwadar, where China could monitor movements from the Indian Ocean to Africa under policies that surround New Delhi and focus on the United States. Second, Islamabad could also allow China to deploy its troops on the Himalayas to open a second front in any skirmishes between New Delhi and New Delhi and surround India. Naturally, the government led by Xi Jinping supports Pakistan as a true friend.
India-China Economic Partnership
But China cannot anger India, with bilateral trade of $127.7 billion and trade surplus of $99.2 billion, as well as a time of a trepidation in the trade war with the United States. Second, China’s economy has not yet grown at 5% at GDP, as Donald Trump launched a tariff war and a world recession is imminent. Any participation in a war will not only destroy its supply chain, but may also economically isolate it, thus falling into a serious economic crisis.
By supporting Pakistan’s issues regarding terrorism or Jamuk and Kashmir, China will not receive any reward. It will neither gain any strategic depth in the LAC along the border with Leh with India or any geopolitical advantage. On the other hand, it will be responsible for supporting terrorism and supporting the Indian government of Pakistan, even from the Islamabad perspective, which is called controversial. China-Pakistan defense cooperation is limited to exporting military hardware, including fighter jets and missiles, intelligence sharing and joint exercises, with the main beneficiary being Pakistan, not China.
What can China do?
However, defense experts believe China may be tempted to fish in troubled waters to gain a foothold in Pakistan so that it won’t burn fingers. In some cases, Beijing can help Pakistan to a limited extent. In the context of local conflict in India-Pakistan, China can expand diplomatic support by supporting the need for an independent investigation into the Pahalgam attack. However, it is unlikely to expand military assistance.
What if India attacks nuclear facilities?
If India launches a preemptive strike on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, Beijing can provide limited military support by moving to the LAC. If a mature war breaks out, communist countries can help Islamabad by invading somewhere along the LAC to distract themselves. Beijing can only fully support Pakistan if it targets its projects and other interests such as CPEC, GWADAR or other BRI projects. Know the possible consequences.
