More than 85% of India relies on imports to meet its crude oil demand, which will turn into fuels such as gasoline and diesel in refineries. However, OPEC’s report said India’s crude oil imports hit a record 5.4 lakh rupees in March, after an increase of more than 5% per month. It said: “Product imports increased by 2%, and LPG inflows were higher. Product exports fell by nearly 3%, but are still at strong levels as the decline in Naphtha and gasoline was offset by the increase in diesel and fuel outflows.”
According to the outlook for the report, it is expected to rise further to 5.99 million BPD in 2026, an increase of 4.28%. Demand growth is higher than the 1.5% forecast of China’s oil demand in 2025, and oil demand growth in 2026. However, in absolute terms, the United States will continue to be the largest oil consumer, with demand of 20.5 million bpd in 2025 followed by China (after £16.9 billion in 2025) (Rs 16.1 billion in 2025 and 171.2 billion bpd in 2026). India is the third largest consumer.
The United States is likely to grow by 0.09% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026. Despite the slower growth, OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and 2026, without changing from previous forecasts. “Looking forward, India’s economy continues to expand early this year. There is strong momentum of economic growth currently going on, driven by continued consumer spending, investment and government support for key sectors,” OPEC reported.
While the recent introduction of U.S. tariffs may have an impact on India’s GDP growth, it also noted that some of these impacts are expected to be compensated by fiscal and monetary stimulus, which adds forward-looking indicators pointing to strong economic dynamics. “The near-term outlook therefore provides a further positive signal for the oil demand in India. Diesel is expected to continue to be the main driver of demand growth,” the report said.
As the road expansion expands on a large scale, demand for asphalt is becoming stronger. “In addition, strong growth in transport fuels, strong expectations for manufacturing and growth in demand for petrochemical feedstocks are expected to support overall oil demand growth,” the report said.
In 2026, ongoing trade-related negotiations are expected to reduce the currently announced tariffs, thus limiting the impact. “In a strong manufacturing and service sector activity, India’s economy is expected to continue to expand and continue the current government support amid inflation easing. Accordingly, oil demand is expected to grow by 246,000 bpd in 246,000 bpd, YOY, with an average of 6 million BPD, supported by 6 million BPD and received healthy economic growth and supplemented with healthy economic growth,” the report added. ”
