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Story so far: The 2021 Sample Registration System (SRS) statistical report released by the Office of the Registrar of India recently showed that the total fertility rate (TFR) in India was 2.0, the same as the national average in 2020. Although the national average of TFR is the same, in the TFR data, there are broad national and union territorial differences (Unounoun Terroritories) (UT) (UT) independent.
Which state sees the highest TFR?
The highest TFR in Bihar recorded the highest TFR in 3.0, with West Bengal and Delhi reportedly having the lowest TFR of 1.4. The data continue to reveal that TFR overall declines in state and nationwide over the decade between 2009-11 and 2019-21, albeit at a rate different.
How to measure TFR?
The SRS report calculated the TFR to measure the estimated number of children in each woman over the entire reproductive age, and the survey defined 15 to 49 years of age. According to the report, the value is derived from other indicators of fertility – more specifically, age-specific fertility rates are summarized by formulas. Fertility rate for a specific age measure the number of children in a specific age range is expected to have.
The data were collected as part of the SRS survey, the largest population survey conducted in India on a yearly basis for measuring various fertility and death indicators. The SRS 2021 survey was conducted in 8,842 sample units in all states and UTS and compiled from a sample size of approximately 8.4 million people.
What are the fertility indicators recorded?
Among the fertility indicators, the SRS report extensively measures the original birth rate (CBR), sex ratio at birth, general fertility, fertility at a specific age and total fertility, etc. Crude oil birth rate measures the number of live births per 1,000 people in the population, and the general fertility rate measures reproductive age women (15-49 years old). These surveys also measure another indicator – the total reproductive rate, which reflects the number of daughters a woman is expected to have, and the number of daughters in turn has children. The report further points out that the replacement level of TFR 2.0 in India is lower than that of 2.1. The replacement level of TFR was measured because each woman should have a substitute for the population of the previous generation. According to the 2021 TFR data, only six states have TFR above the 2.1 replacement level. These are Bihar (3.0), Madhya Pradesh (2.6), Jharkhand (2.3), Uttar Pradesh (2.7) (2.7), chhattisgarh (2.2) and Rajasthan (2.4). All other states reported TFR at or below the alternative level.
According to the SRS report, India’s CBR was 19.3 in 2021, and since 2016, the annual CBR has dropped at a rate of 1.12% per year. Although all the larger states and UTS reports nationwide are reporting a decline in CBR, Uttarakhand is the only outlier, reporting a slight score for CBR. Compared with 2016, CBR has increased slightly. Among states and UTS, CBR has the highest decline rate, with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Tamil Nadu and Delhi, which have reduced CBR almost at a national average rate.
How do experts read fertility data?
According to the reading of the numbers, Professor Praveen K. Pathak of the Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Center for Regional Development Research explained: “It clearly tells us that TFR has dropped below the replacement level and there are significant differences in the state data.” He said there is a “clear sign” that in some states in the southern and northern regions, TFR is “much below” the replacement level, while states such as Bihar, UP and MP report higher TFRS. “The reason is that some of these countries still need human development policies, greater women’s education, and improved health care policy actions. There are about six to seven states, larger states, and these problems persist.”
However, Professor Patak warned that they could face a range of challenges. For example, he cites Sikkim, where the TFR is less than 1, which is equivalent to the TFR of South Korea. “It’s a reality that in many places people don’t want children at all. This may be due to changes in family structure, opportunity costs for parents, and increased pressures associated with care.” Pathak explains that while states with higher TFRs need to tailor policies to human development, which can bring them closer to alternative levels, states reporting lower TFRs have “completely different challenges.”
publishing – May 18, 2025 at 02:30 AM IST
