ICRA project growth rate was 6.9% in the fourth quarter, and FY’25 GDP expanded to 6.3%

ICRA on Monday expects India’s GDP growth rate to be 6.9% for the quarter ended March 31 and 6.3% in the full 2024-25 fiscal year, which is less than the National Bureau of Statistics (NSO) estimates in February. In February, NSO expects India’s economy to grow by 6.5% in 2024-25. Economic growth in the June, September and December quarters was 6.5%, 5.6%, and 6.2%, respectively.

To achieve NSO’s forecast growth of 6.5% in fiscal 25, GDP growth should be 7.6% in the fourth quarter or March quarter.

The NSO plans to release temporary estimates of fiscal year 25 for the fourth quarter of May 31.
In its notes, the country’s year-on-year growth (YOY) in fiscal 2025 grew to 6.9% from 6.2% in the third quarter of 2025, significantly lowering the NSO Intagit estimate for the quarter at 7.6%.

Unless there are significant revisions in the Q1-Q3 FY2025 data, ICRA will drop sharply to 9.2% in fiscal year 2023-24, gradually expanding to 6.3% from 9.2% in fiscal year 2023-24.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said the trends in private consumption and investment activity were uneven in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was partly attributed to tariff-related uncertainty. Exports from the service sector continued to show double-digit growth, and after the December quarter expansion, contracts were made for commodity exports in the fourth quarter of fiscal 20125.