Iran, we are ready to reopen nuclear negotiations, will Tehran surrender to the threat of Donald Trump?
Although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei refused to talk to the United States, the two countries have opened the back channel, and they are most likely to start negotiations next week, most likely in Qatar. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian agreed to negotiate after his U.S. counterparts threatened to bomb Shiites.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian nuclear power plant
U.S. President Donald Trump has turned his attention to Iran, which is believed to be his unfinished work after bombing Houthi militants in Yemen and launching a global trade war. Although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei refused to talk to the United States, the two countries have opened channels and they are most likely to start negotiations next week, most likely in Qatar. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian agreed to talks after his U.S. counterparts threatened to bomb Shiite countries.
What happened to the earlier nuclear agreement?
But given the fact that the two countries spent two years signing a deal in 2015, U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations will not be as easy as they seem. Barack Obama tricked Tehran into signing the agreement and guaranteed the withdrawal of economic sanctions and five other countries (UK, China, France, France, Russia and Germany) to allow people to exchange Shiite countries. Washington waved economic sanctions, Iran agreed to conduct IAEA inspections, insisting on civilian uses, and stopped further enriching uranium after the two countries signed the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA).
But when Donald Trump became the president of the United States, he canceled the deal, re-imposed economic sanctions, imposed some new regulations and threatened Iran. Tehran retaliated by reducing inspections by international nuclear regulators and restoring uranium enrichment. The IAEA believes that Iran has reached 60% enrichment and has enough materials to make six warheads.
What does Donald Trump want?
After Donald Trump threatened Shiite bombing, he proposed the conditions Tehran would most likely refuse. The United States hopes to completely remove nuclear facilities. It also demands guarantee that Iran will never support the Palestinian militant group Hamas and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah. Many experts believe that these are red lines that Iran will not cross, although it may agree to stop further enrichment if economic sanctions are exempted.
However, experts point out that Iran is under tremendous pressure. It is on the verge of economic collapse due to US economic sanctions, which paralyzes the economy. It also collapsed completely due to long-term mismanagement and corruption. The middle class, especially women, is on the receiving end. Its currency, rial, lost more than 50% of its value in one year, and its GDP growth rate is 3.8%.
Iran under pressure
Tehran is under more political and geographical strategic pressure than the economic crisis. Under the leadership of Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani militants), Syria’s pro-Iranian president Bashar-Al-Assad was driven out of Russia and forced to live in Russia.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah were destroyed, so much so that it could take years for them to regroup and restore their lost position. Their supreme leader was abolished, weapons were destroyed, bases were blown up and cadres were liquidated. Hamas is unlikely to have power in the Gaza Strip, with Israeli forces occupying almost two-thirds of the area. Hezbollah was also abandoned in the ruins, with most of its intermediate leaders and cadres killed. The United States bombed Houthi militants in Yemen, destroying most missiles and drones provided by Iran.
Will Masoud Pezeshkian succeed?
In addition, there has been a huge change in Iran’s politics, with the liberal Masoud Pezeshkian becoming president and the supreme leader getting seriously ill. Liberals are exciting in the country, and Ali Khamenei loses most of its influence.
Analysts believe Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be willing to go on an additional mileage to reach a nuclear deal so he can bring the country back on track to economic recovery. The United States may also be happy with the shutdown of uranium enrichment, and Donald Trump may not emphasize the complete removal of all nuclear facilities.
Will sign a nuclear agreement?
