A recession storm may be brewing in the United States. German market research pushes the possibility to 50%
The chances of a recession survey conducted by the CNBC Fed in March were 36%, up from 23% in January. JP Morgan’s chief economist sets the odds at 40%.
What does Deutsche Bank’s investigation say?
According to a Deutsche Bank survey, the United States of America is heading for a recession close to 50-50 and has raised more questions and concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy, according to a Deutsche Bank survey. During March 17-20, the likelihood of a decline in growth over the next 12 months is about 43%, which is the average view of 400 respondents.
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Economists warn that while the survey of 400 respondents was conducted amid low unemployment and economic growth, consumers and businesses are increasingly concerned about tariffs and a possible recession could hurt spending.
“Recent stock market corrections have been stimulated by the ‘uncertainty shock’ of evolving tariff policies as investors fear it could turn into a slowdown or even a recession,” Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday. “But the real core of Conundress is that the U.S. could endanger the risk of growth, which remains the risk of growth.”Please read also: U.S. recession: Jim Walker, who predicts U.S. market crash in 2008, is surprised by economic turmoil
What is the Fed’s comment on our recession?
Although unemployment remains low and most metrics continue, despite slower growth, the findings are consistent with sentiment surveys, suggesting that consumers and business leaders are increasingly concerned about a slowdown or a rising risk of a recession.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged these concerns last week but insisted that the economy remains “overall”, highlighting “significant progress we have made in the past two years.”
Last week, UCLA Anderson School of Management released its first “recession watch.”
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“Be careful what you want because if all your wishes come true, you’re likely to be the author of deep recession,” said Clement Bohr, an economist at the School of Business.
The deadly combination of higher inflation and slower growth increases the chance of stagnation of water, an economic phenomenon that has never been experienced since the early 1980s. Few economists see this era replicated in the current environment, although this probability is increasing policy challenges that the Fed may have to choose between increasing growth and lowering prices.
Barclays analysts observed that “market-based measures only indicate a slowdown in the economy”, which is near the recession threshold despite the company’s growth rate of just 0.7% this year.
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UCLA Anderson predicts that it is a widely respected center for economic research that has recently issued its first “recession watch” due to concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which has caused a stir.
Clement Bohr, an economist at UCLA Anderson, suggested that a recession could occur within a year or two, but if Trump relaxes his tariffs, it can be “completely avoidable.”
“This watch is also cautious about the current government: Be careful about everything you want, because seeing all your policies can make you an architect of a severe recession. This may be more than just a typical recession, but a recession marked by stagnation.”
