Just six months before the Bihar parliamentary elections, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, looked exhausted. He faces serious questions about his health, and the NDA’s social alliance appears to have broken down by the consolidation strategy of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) Muslim Yadav-Yadav-plus.
The latest blow to Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD (U) when political parties support the controversial WAQF amendment law. Shortly after, five Muslim leaders resigned, a decision that sparked dissatisfaction among several members of the party. The exiting leaders are Mohammad Qasim Ansari, secretary of the minority group Mohammad Shahnawaz Malik, regional vice president of Betia (West Chaparan), Governor (Minority Cell) Mohammad Tabrez Siddiqui and party members from Bhojpur Mohammad rayeen. JD (U) MLC Ghulam Ghaus called the act unconstitutional and urged President Droupadi Murmu to abolish it.
Read Also | Will Nitish Kumar remain the face of the NDA in Bihar Parliamentary Election?
Qasim Ansari’s resignation letter to Nitish Kumar dominated the headlines, but senior JD (U) leaders dismissed the issue, preferring to recall that when Ansari competed for the 2020 election from the dhaka conference seat, on the kite symbol (all India-ee-tite-tite-e-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite-tite
While those who resigned were not top leaders, their decision to withdraw from the increasingly disillusioned decision of Muslim voters with Nitish Kumar, who has long enjoyed their goodwill despite his alliance with the BJP. By supporting WAQF laws, JD(U) made it clear that it does not want to swing the NDA ship in the state.
Muslim resentment
However, resignation was not very good for JD (U) in election year, especially when the front became sharper, the RJD revived RJD contacted non-Yadav communities among other large qualities, while Muslims firmly supported Lalu Prasad-tejashwi Yadav Yadav Yadav Yadav Yadav Deo.
Just a few months ago, leaders of two-term Rajya Sabha members Ali Anwar Ansari and Pasmanda Muslim Samaj from JD (U) resigned from their resignation to Congress. The RJD-Congress combine is expected to take advantage of Ansari’s popularity to rope in the Muslim vote in Pasmanda (backward).
In Bihar, power rotates around three main poles: BJP, RJD and JD (U). Smaller players such as Congress, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP (RV), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Semitic) and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party joined the league they joined. So far, two groups have gathered together and formed a government.
Although the BJP and RJD never formed a coalition, the JD (U) has changed several times, changing the state’s power dynamics. Between 2013 and 2024, Nitish Kumar switched four times, winning the “Paltu Ram” or Side-Switcher’s Sobriquet.
After Nitish Kumar returned to the BJP combine for the last time, he had been in pain against growing rumors, changing the changes on both sides. In March, in the presence of Home Minister Amit Shah, he announced that he had “faulted twice” and promised to stay with the BJP forever. Earlier, he provided such assurance to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a public meeting.
Modi’s decision to hold a small roadshow with Nitish Kumar in Bhagalpur in February is also aimed at Scotland. For now, the BJP has stalled the possibility of Nitish Kumar switching to RJD again, but for the Saffron Party, it is worrying that his political currency declines.
JD (U) Powerhouse
Whether in the party or in the government, Nitish Kumar never made anyone doubt the position of JD(U)(U)’s power fulcrum.
In December 2023, he emphasized this and served as the party chief for the second time when he secured the resignation of party chairman Rajiv Ranjan Singh, alias Lalan Singh. In April 2016, Nitish replaced Sharad Yadav, the longest-serving JD (U) president, who served as president of 3 years and 10 years at his will).
Ironically, it was Nitish Kumar who served as chairman of the Sharad Yadav party in 2006, replacing George Fernandes, a fire-resistant leader since 2003, who has served as party chairman since 2003 and replaced his predecessor, the Samata Party.
Nitish Kumar has always been prevailing in dealing with the rebellion, whether it is the rebel Upendra Kushwaha who transformed from his own assistant, RCP Singh’s RCP Singh’s or Jitan Ram Manjhi of the government.
He also achieved a high moral stance by not promoting any member of the political family. (The closest to Nitish Kumar is Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik. Earlier this year, his son Nishant Kumar stood out from the shadows and began to make his political presence feel, which has sparked speculation that Nitish Kumar is preparing to hand over the ins ropes given his poor health. Videos showing him staggering and forgetting are on tour on social media.
Learned from the 2015 parliamentary election defeat before the 2019 Lok Sabha election, and although his party won 2 titles in 2014, the BJP attracted Nitish Kumar by giving him 16 seats. Nitish Kumar is in the RJD or BJP-supported Chief Minister of the Government Even BJP, even those parties have larger seats (u) than JD (u).
Read also | New Kids in Bihar and the Neighborhood
Now, in 2025, the BJP once again succumbed to conquest, declaring Nitish Kumar the face of Bihar NDA. This is a surprise, especially given the mysterious comments in Amit Shah’s earlier TV interview, saying “We will sit together and decide” to answer who will lead the alliance in Bihar.
RJD, despite repeated use, is not tired of saying that its door is Nitish Kumar. Or, instead, Lalu Prasad said so, but Tejashwi Yadav objected.
Women’s support
Nitish Kumar’s strength lies in the continued support of female voters across castes, thanks to the ban, Panchayats women’s seat reservations, and steps such as welfare measures for bicycles. Additionally, through special programs, he strengthened his grip on non-Yadavs, very backward courses and Mahadalits.
JD(U)’s holding of more than 15% of the vote helped the NDA become the winning combination as it increased the 20% voting share of the BJP and other allies and removed the advantage of the RJD-Congress, thus garnering nearly 30% of the votes from Muslims and Yadavs.
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav targeted the WAQF Amendment Bill on Dharna on March 26. The revived RJD is expected to bring a fierce battle to the NDA in the upcoming conventional elections. |Photo source: Pappi Sharma/Ani
However, it is believed that JD(U)’s share of voting in parliamentary elections has decreased. In the 2005 and 2010 parliamentary elections, the party won more than 20% and 22% of the votes when it competed with the BJP coalition. In 2015, this dropped to 17% when it was with the RJD. In 2020, JD(U) received only 15.7%.
The decline in voting share also translates directly into a decline in seat count: Starting from 115 seats in 2010, the party won 71 seats in 2015 and only 43 seats in 2020.
By comparison, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it was RJD who had the highest turnout among all parties at 22.14%.
The influence of decline
Rajesh Chakrabarti in his book Bihar Chakrabarti said in his book Rajesh Chakrabarti: “But it is thought that Bihar population today is the same as the previous election, which is the same way as the previous election. The benefits brought by the government have been reduced than the general spirit. Dissatisfaction has boiled to the point where Nitish’s convoy was smashed to death during Seva Yatra.”
Nitish may read Writing on the Wall in 2015, which is why he decided to join hands with the same Lalu Prasad, whose politics misled his political major boards. The victory of Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD and Congress, was more complex than the popularity of the simple Nitish Kumar, with the help of election strategist Prashant Kishor. By 2020, JD(U) will decline further.
Now, Prashant Kishor forms his own party. No wonder, questions are being raised over the several quarters of the prospect of Nitish Kumar being projected as a chief minister candidate in 2025, and whether such a move will really benefit the league.
Twenty years are a politically long time, and there are signs that the anti-provisional period has caught up with Nitish Kumar. For example, although Congress is only a minor player in Bihar, the stop immigration Yatra, which began in Champaran on March 16, has gained good appeal.
Champaran is the land where Mahatma Gandhi was excited during the Freedom Movement. The political symbolism of the venue is very strong. Prashant Kishor also launched his Yatra under the banner of Jan Suraaj to connect with the masses in the same place.
Still a force to count
Nitish Kumar supporters cited the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when JD (U) won 12 of 16 seats, fighting for his still-numbered view. When people recommended Nitish Kumar as Bihar’s NDA leader, his supporters gained support in December last year and put forward a tagline in Slogan: “Jab Baat Bihar ki Ho, Naam Sirf Nitish nitish Kumar kumar ka ho” (when Bihar, Nitish kumar’s champion, his name should all be theirs.
Obviously, 2025 is the toughest election battle facing Nitish Kumar. But a confident JD (U) appears with a bold poster screaming “25 SE 30, Phir Se Nitish” (from 2025 to 2030, it’s Nitish again).
Speech front on Nitish Kumar’s strengths and why he remains relevant, Amitabh Tiwari, political commentator and election strategy, said: “Nitish Kumar is a force multipleer; whichever party the JD(U) aligns with goes on to form the government. Bihar’s caste equations and social conditions give him the political manoeuvrability to switch sides successfully.”
Read Also | Bihar 2025: BJP, RJD or Nitish Kumar No Cakewalk
He added: “His core foundation is more or less intact and he also brought a part of the Pasmada Muslim due to his secular image. This will not change due to the WAQF.”
He also said that the BJP has been carrying Nitish Kumar for the past 20 years and that there is no leader to match him or Tejashwi Yadav.
“BJP leaders do not have the appeal of pan-state. BJP cannot touch magical figures alone. Even the weak Nidish still commands a crucial 12-15% voting share. RJD has been working to expand its voting base beyond Muslims and Yadavs.”
Whether Nitish Kumar can use his magic for the last time, while opponents keep all political experts’ speculation.
