Alliance and poll arithmetic

The revival of the relationship between the entire Indian Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made the success of the major Dravid Party, including the dominant DMK, crucial. Although their combined voting share is close to 66% of the vote in the seven parliamentary elections since 1991, two major Dravidian parties have been in the company of one or more parties to voters. An exception to the rule is that former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa brought AIADMK candidates in 227 constituencies during the 2016 general election and allocated one constituency to the seven parties fighting over the AIADMK symbol. The gambling paid off. But 2016 is a distant past, and both DMK and its main rival AIADMK are looking to take any such risks in 2026. Furthermore, the main opposition parties learned a lesson in a difficult way in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. It has been involved in the company of smaller parties such as Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Puthiya Tamizhagam and the Indian Social Democratic Party took over the DMK, working with Congress together with Congress. Casarge.

Draw a blank

Given this background, AIADMK’s performance is predictable and disastrous: It has not won a single seat in seven constituencies and a deposit forfeited. It has suffered this collapse for the first time since its inception in October 1972. The BJP-led Democratic League has a voting share of about 18.2%, while BJP alone accounts for only 11.4%. It is obvious that the alliance led by AIADMK has a voting share of about 23.3%, NDA and NDA, among which Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), Amma Makkal Makkal Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (Ammk) and panmed panmed panmervam next to the group, Dhevanathan Yadav is in the same respect, and the results will be different. At least for now, supporters of the two alliances say the combination could prevent the DMK-led front-line slip. It is in this case that the renewal of the connection between AIADMK and BJP is already important. Amit Shah, the Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader, said in Chennai: “We will fight the election under Edappadi’s leadershipJI [AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami]. ”

Another factor that led to the revival of relations is that it is believed that the BJP, led by Firebrand K. Annamalai, has been invaded for more than three years until recently, the BJP has fallen into an invasion in the Kongu or Western region, a traditional stronghold of the AIADMK. Take Thondamuthur as an example, now represented by the former local administration minister and Aiadmk’s face at Coimbatore SP Velumani. In 2021, Mr Velumani investigated about 124,000 votes, and three years later, his colleagues had only 58,000 votes under the Pollachi Lok Sabha constituency. The BJP’s Vasantharajan received about 56,800 votes. If they were together, they might easily surpass DMK’s K. Eswarasamy, who voted 98,355. In terms of the total number of votes polled in Thondamuthur , there was only a marginal decline — 2,30,531 votes in 2021 and 2,28,535 votes (excluding postal votes) in 2024. On its own, the AIADMK was ahead of the DMK-led coalition only in four Assembly constitutions in the western region, two of which (Edappadi and Kumarapalayam) were respectively represented by Mr. Palaniswami and former Minister of Electricity P. Thangamani. According to a study conducted by the journalist based on the parties’ performance in the 2024 election, if the AIADMK-led frontline and NDA are together, the combine will lead the region’s 34 constituencies.

Hope of prejudice

In September 2023, when AIADMK believed it would “regain” a portion of the votes in the minority community, the party said it was lost due to its alliance with the National Party. In fact, after the 2021 election results, former law secretary C. Ve ended. Shanmugam, defeated in Villupuram, accused the BJP of losing support from minority communities in his constituency, including 18,000 people in Villupuram Town. Mr Shanmugam is now a member of Rajya Sabha, and he received a vote of 87,403 to 1,02,271 against R. Lakshmanan of DMK. Similarly, D. Jayakumar, the party’s long-time spokesman and former Fisheries Minister, mentioned his failure in Royapuram (he has been representing since 1991, except for the period 1996-2001), and said that after 36,645 votes, he would not lose 25,000 votes (actual amounts of 27,779,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,79). However, in 2024, their party performed worse than in 2021. In Royapuram and Villupuram, it voted 24,247 and 62,825 respectively. “them [the minority communities] Don’t want us to be with the BJP. But they won’t vote for us in the election. What else can we do in this case? “I want to know an AIADMK veteran in the western region.

The biggest weakness of AIADMK is the Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu and Chennai (KTCC) regions, which in 2021 only wins one of 37 constituencies (Madurantakam). After that, the situation has not changed much. If AIADMK competes with the BJP, they will have another one – T. Nagar, who lost to DMK by 137 votes four years ago. Another problematic area for AIADMK is Cauvery Delta, which has only four out of 41 constituencies. They were former ministers R. Vaithilingam (Orathanadu), Os Manian (Vedaranyam), R. Kamaraj (Nannilam) and C. Vijayabaskar (Viralimalai) won the championship. If there is any sign of the voting model in 2024, the party needs support from the NPC and its partners, even in Viralimalai and Vedaranyam.

There is also an ally

Assuming that all the allies of BJP and AIADMK, including the PMK and DMDK that have not yet decided on the league, remain in the NDA, such a combination will not be able to beat next year’s DMK and its allies based on their performance in 2024. It requires another party, which could be Naam Tamilar Katchi, which caught 8.24% of the vote last year, or Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. Since TV is an untested force, it is too early to evaluate its power. But if DMDK, founded through Vijayakant, was polled during the 2006 conference and 2009 competitions alone, one could assume that TVK’s voting share could be between 8% and 10%. As of now, NTK leader Seeman has insisted that his party will participate alone, while TVK founder Vijay said his party will be in charge of the coalition. If AIADMK-BJP combines NTK, it can win 48 constituencies, 19 of which are in the KTCC and Cauvery Delta regions.

Although the situation of the people voting next year is different from last year, the possibility of revamping the NDA (including parties including AIADMK, BJP, BJP, PMK and NTK) has fought a tough battle against the frontline led by DMK. Meanwhile, even DMK critics can admit that the biggest advantage of the party and its allies is their ability to vote to transfer. Not by coincidence, but by design, the DMK-led front could have a 47% voting share in 2024. Additionally, all voters have a voting share, ranging from 42% to 51% of their controversial seats. The DMK received about 534,000 votes in each of the controversial Lok Sabha constituency last year, indicating that its voting base in each parliamentary seat is an average of 89,000 votes, as the six general assembly segments form a Lok Sabha Natsutition. Given that the quasi-winners in parliamentary elections will require about 90,000 votes, this will be achievable. Between the 2016 parliamentary elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, about 44,10 million voters exercised their franchise. This means that there are about 1.88 million votes in each parliamentary constituency. The DMK scores 89,000-ODD and can only be viewed in this case. It is predictable that AIADMK cannot better improve its Arch competitors. Therefore, it needs more allies. Mr Palaniswami has realized the request and has been saying that more parties will fall on him. It remains to be seen whether the opposition leader can beat Chief Minister MK Stalin, who seems to have an advantage over others.