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Andhra Pradesh’s Profits, Losses and Politics

Since the coalition government began discussing demarcation activities, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu made it clear that he supported the process, unlike his southern counterparts led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin.

Mr Naidu, who supported the NDA government’s move, promoted family planning earlier and talked about the population explosion, said he had changed his perspective on the population and was now promoting population growth, believing that India’s biggest advantage over developed countries is its population dividend.

He further pointed out that even South Indian states, including Andhra Pradesh, are facing aging problems. That’s why he is promoting population growth now.

At the recently concluded Parliamentary Budget Meeting, Mr. Naidu made it clear that once the delimitation process is completed after the 2026 census, the share of women in the General Assembly will increase to 75 seats in accordance with the women’s retention norms.

After a landslide victory in the 2024 general and parliamentary elections and forming an NDA coalition government in Andhra Pradesh, Mr Naidu overturned a three-year-old rule that allowed candidates to cancel candidates for local body polls related to more than two children.

The question now is whether his support for demarcation will segregate him from other southern states. It is worth noting that he did not attend the meeting convened by Mr. Stalin. Mr. Naidu is expected to be part of the NDA with his party, the Telugu Party (TDP), and the Jana Sena Party of Pawan Kalyan is part of the NDA.

Interestingly, Mr Naidu realized that if the demarcation process was carried out after the 2026 census, then the representation of Andhra Pradesh in Lok Sabha would not increase significantly, unlike states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. But, he had no choice.

Don’t repeat the past

As the leader of the TDP, Mr. Naidu is unlikely to repeat his past mistakes or oppose the BJP mistakes, as he did before the 2019 general election. Not only did he lose the election because he stepped out of the NDA in Andhra Pradesh’s special category status, he also invited the anger of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. Thanks to Mr. Kalyan’s efforts, the alliance agreement was reached only before the 2024 general election.

It is also worth noting that Mr. Naidu first established the government in 2014 with the support of the NDA after the fork in Andhra Pradesh. Now, in 2024, he becomes Chief Minister for the fourth time, once again becoming the same league.

On the other hand, despite the invitation, the former Chief Minister and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the president of the YSR Congress, did not attend Mr Stalin’s meeting. However, he has sent a letter to the Prime Minister, stressing the need for a constitutional amendment to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats in each state in proportion. In record, Mr. Jagan never strongly opposed the NDA on any issue. In fact, he supported the passage of several controversial bills.

Currently, Andhra Pradesh has 25 lok sabha seats, and under the proposed demarcation formula, the number is expected to increase to 28. By comparison, Uttar Pradesh’s representatives will rise from 80 to 128, while Bihar’s representatives will rise from 40 to 70.

Mr. Naidu clearly stated that demarcation should not be related to population management. He also said that the demarcation process should not reduce the number of seats in Lok Sabha but should ensure reasonable allocation.

He also added that Andhra Pradesh follows family planning, which is why there is no significant increase in population compared to northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Mr Shaa said there were no seats in the southern states, but he had not specified those numbers.

Now, whether demarcation will become a major issue for the Andhra Pradesh government and whether it remains to be seen whether it is found in the subtle debate with the centre in the coming days.

The total number of seats in the five southern states is expected to be around 16, while the rest of the House of Commons is about 190 seats.

sumit.b@thehindu.co.in

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