Canadian Election 2025: Carney’s anti-Trump stance and liberal surging masks poilievre’s decline
Poilievre and the conservatives seem to be expected to achieve substantial victory at the beginning of the election cycle. In the months leading the election, Poilievre led 25 points on an unpopular Justin Trudeau.
Poilievre uses widespread national dissatisfaction to articulate a populist message, claiming “Canada is broken” and promises to remove the carbon tax, fund the CBC and take a tough stance on crime.
He convened an alliance that seemed to be on the verge of seizing power.
But the political climate has changed dramatically as tensions involving the United States escalate. President Donald Trump’s increasingly radical rhetoric, including tariffs and even annexation, has triggered a surge in Canadian nationalism. This external pressure reshapes elections into a referendum on Canadian sovereignty and the country’s relationship with its southern neighbors. The Liberal Party faces potential election disaster under Trudeau, and has taken strategic moves by replacing him with Mark Carney.
Carney, a former central banker known for his ability to calm and economic expertise, resonated with the nations he sought stability in the face of external threats. This leadership change proved to be critical, which triggered a significant shift in liberals.
Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford’s support for Carney further consolidates the shift. “Ford sent a signal to voters in the Greater Toronto area that changes have changed with Trudeau, especially in terms of the economy,” explained Gerald Butts, an adviser for Trudeau and Carney.
Ford’s recognition lends Carney a crucial credibility, especially in Ontario
Poilievre’s reaction to Trump’s provocation is widely considered insufficient. When Trump called Trudeau “governor”, Poilievre was primarily concerned with border security and failed to forcibly and decisively refute the threat of annexation.
This mistake proved expensive, especially in Ontario, where concerns about economic stability and trade relations with the United States are crucial.
“We’ve seen a period of about six weeks where 8 million voters moved from different places to the Canadian Liberal Party.”
“It’s not superficial or casual. There’s an inner force driving this. This force is the recoil of Donald Trump’s crazy cavalry.”
Poilievre is known for his aggressive, magazine-influenced attacks, and he struggles to adapt to the ever-changing driving force of the election. His reputation as a “vicious attack dog, not a coalition builder” alienated estranged voters.
This polarization led to a significant shift, with left-leaning NDP and supporters in Quebec rallies behind liberals, consolidating Canadian voters into a more obvious bipartisan system.
Apart from Poilievre’s challenge, he suffered a significant personal failure for losing his long seat in Carlton. This loss was a symbolic blow, raising questions about the effectiveness of his leadership and campaign strategy.
By contrast, Carney showed his stable hands, and he was able to navigate the economic uncertainty posed by Trump’s policies.
His impressive resume, including a move to Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and during Brexit, assurances to countries seeking stability. While Poilievre focuses on domestic issues such as taxes and spending, Trump’s ongoing intervention in the campaign has undermined his message.
On Election Day, Trump urged Canadians to become “the 51st cherished. United States”, further cementing Carney’s victory.
This ultimate provocation strengthens Carney’s image as a defender of Canadian sovereignty and support for liberals.
The 2025 election results also highlight the shifting voting share between the liberal party and the Conservative party’s recent election cycle.
- Liberal voting stock analysis:
- 2019: 33.1%
- 2021: 32.6%
- 2025: 43.7%
- Change:
- From 2019 to 2021: -0.5% (reduced)
- From 2021 to 2025: +11.1% (increase)
- Conservative voting stock analysis:
- 2019: 34.4%
- 2021: 33.7%
- 2025: 41.2%
- Change:
- 2019-2021: -0.7% (reduced)
- From 2021 to 2025: +7.5% (increase)
These figures suggest that liberals have experienced a bigger surge despite the increase in the voting share of conservatives in the 2025 election.
Although the Conservatives received the highest total of votes in 2021, this violent increase in strategic gains on major regions has given the Liberals the largest number of seats.
In short, the 2025 Canadian federal election is defined by its influence on Trump and its refusal to reaffirm Canada’s identity.
Mark Carney’s leadership, coupled with his strong stance against annexation and economic credibility, drove the liberal victory.
Poilievre’s initial lead evaporated when Trump’s interventions reshape the election, eventually leading to his failure in a long seat and a major blow to his political trajectory.
The election results show that the fluctuations in Canadian voters and the profound impact of external factors on domestic politics.
