On the one hand, I am worried about the direction of the world. No, it’s not only about the market or investment, but it’s something bigger. In the peace era after World War II, the world order was largely predictable, and we all inhabited the assumption of stability, but now everything suddenly appears in the air. I’m not a geopolitical expert, but even as an amateur, these signs are ominous.
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Yes, there are many unfair or criminal international or interpersonal conflicts during the transition period. Remember Iraq’s second Gulf War of Weapons of Mass Destruction; or the recent war crimes in Palestine; Vietnam; Afghanistan, etc., plus the years of the Cold War. But there is little impact on global peace. The number of players you need to worry about is limited, especially because of the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern bloc.
As US President, Donald Trump may want the United States to stop being a world policeman, but if US/NATO peace guarantees (even the latter’s survival), then every small state will have a person wearing a nuclear button. There are enough madmen (yes, so far, everyone). On June 28, 1914, Austria’s Franz Ferdinand assassinated World War I – this is what we have taught in history, but I’m sure no one would have thought that at the time this would trigger some people that would kill tens of thousands.
In our own homes, the zoning people, including Kinner, never imagined that it would release the chaotic scale.
When the environment is stable, it is hard to imagine how things can be completely out of control. Our brains are not like that at all. Or maybe the same as Ariel Durant History lessonsIn human affairs, everything is periodic, and perhaps a long time of peace is bringing to different things.
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Now you have narcissists with power who seem to think they are some sort of video simulation. From his tweets, Elon Musk is working to see himself as the king of war in his post-revelation life.
I wonder how this will work in our lives. I recently attended a speech by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who made it clear that the days of multilateral trade guides are over and we need to prepare for bilateral negotiations with everyone.
Going into finance and investment, let’s look at “Trump Trade” and what’s going on. This requires looking at how large private banks work.
But first of all, the data. The final Trump stock Tesla fell 42% from its recent high and is probably the worst performing stock of the top 100 companies in 2025 to date. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are lower than the chores on November 5, 2024 (the day before Trump won) and of course a sharp drop from their climax.
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When Trump was elected president, many global and private banks began selling their so-called “Trump stocks.” Many people, including the world’s super high net worth individual and family offices, follow these piping players into the sea.
Even though I tried to explain the truth to them at the time, no one wanted to listen to rationality, including not explicitly describing what Trump stock looks like. After all, many of these portfolios include defense stocks – that’s what it says to presidential candidates who have been saying that the United States should not be a world policeman and participate in wars overseas. Also, given the aggressiveness he showed even to his long-standing allies (Canada, anyone? or the EU), who now wants to buy defense equipment from the United States?
Remember that private bankers from banks around the world may be wearing Italian clothes and may know the name of French wine, but they are no different from your nearby insurance uncle’s polyester shirt, which used to sell your Ulips. Their expensive watches are usually paid for by the profits of fat from inappropriate products sold with beautiful stories.
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Back to Trump Trade. The real reason it doesn’t work is that his method is completely unpredictable. I wrote an article in November and before he took office he said anyone who is predicting Trump’s impact on the stock market, money market, bond market, etc. must smoke because when you don’t know what he would do in the first place, how can you confidently predict its second and third order effects and have any degree of certainty?
Also, most of what he said was inconsistent. For example, trying to reduce the cost of living for Americans on the one hand and talk about inflation taxes on the other hand. And if you want to aggravate the uncertainty, you have to marry Trump and Musk. All of this would be interesting if we were the only one to see it from another planet.
The author is the chairman, managing director and founder of First Global, and the author of “Money, Myth and Spells: The Ultimate Investment Guide”. Her X handle is @devinamehra
