India and Bangladesh are trying to improve their tensions, especially after former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seized asylum in India. India also expressed concern about reports of attacks on Indian ethnic minorities in Bangladesh.
A retired Bangladeshi officer has caused controversy with a bold and shocking statement. Major General (RETD) Alm Fazlur Rahman recently suggested that if India launches a military strike against Pakistan, involving the deadly terrorist attacks in Jamu and Pahalgam in Kashmir (killing 26 people), then Bangladesh should invade and control seven northeastern states of India. He even suggested that Bangladesh should work with China to achieve this plan. Rahman, who once led the Bangladesh rifle (now Bangladesh), is said to be close to Bangladesh’s current chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, who shared the provocative idea in Bengali on Facebook. He wrote: “If India attacks Pakistan, Bangladesh will have to occupy seven states in northeastern India. To this end, we should start negotiations with China to develop a joint military plan.”
This statement comes at sensitive moments. India and Bangladesh are trying to improve their tensions, especially after former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seized asylum in India. India also expressed concern about reports of attacks on Indian ethnic minorities in Bangladesh. Tensions escalated further when Bangladesh chief adviser Muhammad Yunus visited China in March, making controversial comments on the northeastern state of India.
He called them “Seven Sisters”, called them inland, claiming that they could not enter the sea. He then described Bangladesh as the region's “only guardian of the ocean”, an opportunity for China's economy to grow. These remarks disappointed many leaders of the ruling BJP in India. In response, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar pointed out that the northeast of India is becoming a key hub for regional trade and connectivity through Bimstec and has made significant investments in roads, railways and waterways.
Things worsened when India recently concluded a five-year agreement that allowed Bangladesh to export goods through Indian ports and airports. India said the decision was due to traffic congestion and high traffic. Meanwhile, China continues to send weapons, warships and ammunition to Bangladesh and the Maldives. This raises serious questions: Why should China arm these two Muslim majority countries? What is its strategy? How does it use these alliances if conflicts between India and Pakistan break out?
What is Bimstec?
Bimstec represents the initiative of multisectoral technical and economic cooperation in the Bay of Bengal. This is a group of seven countries – India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan, which work together to promote trade, connectivity and development in the Bay of Bengal region. Founded in 1997, Bimstec aims to improve economic growth, strengthen cooperation in areas such as transportation and energy, and jointly combat terrorism. For India, it is also a better way to connect its northeastern state to the Bay of Bengal and reduce China's growing influence.
What is the country of the seven sisters?
“Seven Sisters” is a term used to describe seven states in northeastern India. These are:
- Arunachal Pradesh (capital: itanagar)
- Assam (capital: dispur)
- Meghalaya (capital: Shillong)
- Manipur (Capital: Iphar)
- Mizoram (capital: Aizawl)
- Nagaran (capital: Kohima)
- Tripura (capital: Agartala)
They are called the Seven Sisters because they are geographically close, culturally similar, and interdependent on trade and development. The term was coined in 1972 by Tripura's reporter Jyoti Prasad Saikia, a term created on a radio talk show. Later he wrote a book about this issue. The states are connected to other countries in India through a narrow piece of land called the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the “chicken neck”. Sikkim is another nearby northeast state, but because it is separated by this corridor, it is sometimes called the “brother” of the seven sisters.
Why do China arm Bangladesh and the Maldives?
China has provided weapons to Bangladesh and Maldives for many years. Bangladesh has received submarines, warships, anti-fleet missiles and small weapons – now 80% of the weapons come from China. Although smaller, the Maldives have received patrol boats and maritime surveillance equipment. China is even exploring the possibility of establishing naval bases in the Maldives.
But why does China do this?
Expand influence: China wants to rule the Indian Ocean region where India has traditionally power. Providing weapons and loans to Bangladesh and the Maldives helps China's influence.
Creating economic dependence: As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China has funded large infrastructure projects in both countries. These projects usually come with heavy loans, which makes it difficult for countries to reject China's demands.
Strategic geography: Bangladesh is close to India’s sensitive northeast, while the Maldives is close to key transport lanes. Gaining influence here allows China to challenge India's regional strength.
China's strategy: debt and dependence
China's plan is simple, but smart – including a lot of loans and weapons to make these countries depend on.
In Bangladesh, China built Padma Bridge and power plants, but these loans came with high interest loans. Bangladesh now owes China billions of dollars, providing China with a strong say in its decision-making.
In the Maldives, China has built the Sinamali Bridge and other infrastructure. The country now has such high debt that it strives to make independent choices.
The military equipment given to both countries relies on Chinese parts and training, locking it in long-term dependence.
This means that China can indirectly push the interests of these countries to act, even if it hurts neighbors like India.
How does China use Bangladesh and Maldives to India?
If a war between India and Pakistan breaks out, China may not fight directly with India. Instead, it may use Bangladesh and the Maldives to cause problems for India.
Bangladesh: Rahman's speech shows that some people in Bangladesh may support China's goals. With Chinese weapons, Bangladesh may be thrilling in the northeast of India or attempting to destroy the Siliguri Corridor and cut off opportunities for the seven sisters. This will make it difficult for India to deliver soldiers or supplies to its northeastern region.
Maldives: The Maldives can allow Chinese navy or submarines to dock at their ports. This would force India to divide its naval resources – viewed Pakistan in the west and south.
Even if Bangladesh and the Maldives are smaller countries, their role can distract India and extend its military focus.
India’s Challenge and How to Respond
India is facing a difficult situation. The seven sisters are far away from the Indian continent, and the narrow Siliguri corridor is a fragile place. Rahman and Yunus' comments suggest that Bangladesh may be inclined toward China. The Maldives also seem to be moving away from India under the leadership of the pro-Chinese government.
To solve this problem, India is taking several steps:
Enhanced BIMSTEC: India is using this regional platform to connect the Northeast with other friendly countries, thus reducing its dependence on Bangladesh.
Invest in the Northeast: India is building new roads, railways and ports to turn the area into a trade hub.
Strengthening Maldives Relations: India provides more help through education, tourism and aid programs to restore lost stance.
My opinion
Rahman’s suggestion for invasion of northeast India is shocking, but such a move is extremely unlikely. This would be dangerous and could backfire – India's army is much stronger. However, China's deepening control over Bangladesh and the Maldives is a real problem. Through armed and debt countries, China is building a network of allies that can fight India, especially in the event of conflict.
India must be smart. It should provide better economic transactions for both countries to reduce their dependence on China. At the same time, India must strengthen its defense capabilities in the northeast and closely monitor China's activities in the Indian Ocean.
Diplomacy and development are key. These seven sisters are a key part of India and maintaining them is a national priority. China's actions are worrying, but with careful planning and wise policies, India can maintain its strength and leadership in the region.
(The author of this article is a defense, aerospace and political analyst based in Bangalore. He is also the director of Add Engineering Gmbh, Germany’s Add Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own views and do not reflect the views of DNA)
