Gold Price Today: Gold Price Forecast: Out of the Fed’s tax rate decision and 177,000 jobs, gold can exceed $3,268 and rise to $3,300? Can it eventually push $3,500 higher? Here's what you need to know

Gold prices ended around the week, but now everyone’s eyes are locked on the critical $3,268 breakout level as investors pay a lot of U.S. economic data and Fed rate decisions. Although gold has been under pressure recently due to more than expected work volumes and improved U.S.-China trade sentiment, the days ahead may bring new volatility and potentially open the door to another gold rally.

Why is gold struggling despite the increasing global uncertainty?

Gold's slight decline last week as solid coverage of U.S. jobs report and signs of easing trade tensions, leaving precious metals shining. According to the latest non-agricultural wages (NFP) data, the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, beating the 130,000 forecast. This surprise raises the Treasury’s rate of return higher, and hopes for a near-term reduction in interest rates are reduced.
Since gold does not have any yield, rising bond yields often make it less attractive. This time it's no different. Traders immediately cut their bets on lower tax rates in June, a shift that forced gold prices to be bigger.
Market strategist Daniel Pavilonis stressed that optimism about the U.S.-China trade negotiations are also weighing gold. On Friday, China's Ministry of Commerce marked a willingness to negotiate tariffs, a move that raised risk sentiment and capped gold under $3,500.

What are the key data expected to lower gold prices next week?

Next week is full of macro data on the market, and gold traders are on high alert. Here is the complete lineup:

• May 6: ISM Service PMI (Forecast: 50.2, Previous Post: 50.8)
• May 7: Fed rate decision (expected: 4.50%, no changes)
• May 7: FOMC statement and press conference by Associated Press Chairman Jerome Powell
• May 8: Weekly unemployment claims (Forecast: 232,000, prior: 241,000)
• May 9: Speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller

While interest rates are not expected to be hikes or cuts, Powell's tone at the press conference will be key. If he sends out any dirty hints, or even admits that the economy is softened, Gold will get a new promotion. Otherwise, the hawkish signal could keep the Golden Bulls off the field.

Will a breakthrough above $3,268 trigger a gold medal rally?

Technically, gold (XAU/USD) is captured in a tight area and trades for just $3,268. This level marks a downgrade trendline as well as a 50-cycle EMA, a key indicator of the short-term price direction. If gold can be discounted and held above $3,268, analysts think it can unlock further upward targets of $3,275 and $3,295. But be cautious – traders should wait for confirmation, especially the volatility that could rise after an upcoming economic event.

On the downside, the price of support is $3,231, followed by $3,204. While the MACD indicator remains bearish, there are some signs that it is starting to stabilize, suggesting that this momentum may change soon.

What is the trade setting for gold this week?

Here is a simplified breakdown of the gold trade strategy that many people are watching:

• Entry Point: Confirmed Breakthrough, Close $3,268
• Target: First at $3,275, then $3,295
• Stop Loss: Less than $3,231

If the Fed or ISM data is surprising, gold may benefit as price cuts hope to recover. On the other hand, strong data could drive higher treasury production and further pressure on gold.

New traders should resist the temptation to chase early breakthroughs. With so many activities lined up, waiting for a callback after a spike in volatility may provide safer entries.

Will gold eventually launch a $3,500 ceiling?

Currently, $3,500 remains the upper limit for gold, mainly due to a rebound in market risk appetite. This shift is due to the ease of geopolitical risks and the surprise of economic indicators for the upside.

Unless we see the main signal that the Fed may exceed expectations of weaker economic data, gold may struggle to break the top level in the near term. However, if macro conditions (even if they are a little bit) change, the $3,268 breakout could be a trigger for the fresh golden rally.

Until then, gold was still at a crossroads, existing between strong U.S. fundamentals, cooling inflation and cautious central bank news.

FAQ:

Question 1: What is the key breakthrough level of gold prices this week?
A1: Gold needs to be broken and held $3,268 Potential rally.

Question 2: How does the Fed's rate decision affect gold prices?
A2: Dirty feeding tone can improve Gold price Reduce hope by restoring interest rates.