Senior industry executives say a good monsoon will help restore food inflation, restore rural demand and promote sales of fast-moving consumer goods, thus causing the industry to grow by an estimated 11-12% in the current fiscal year, up 11-12% from 7-8% last year.
“The monsoon rainfall in the entire country is most likely to be higher than normal,” said N Ravicandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. He also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the monsoon season from June to September.
The country is expected to receive 105% of long-term rainfall this year, which is crucial for strong sowing of key Kharif crops such as beans, rice, oilseeds, corn, corn, cotton and vegetables.
Consumer goods manufacturers expect massive rainfall to stimulate sales of large-scale consumer projects. “A good monsoon brings good rural sales in the third quarter and during the holidays. This has led to a surge in demand for mass market and entry-level products,” said Kamal Nandi, head of appliances at Godrej Enterprises.
Industry sales for white goods have been reduced over the past ten quarters, while urban areas have performed poorly.
“Monsoon is the most important factor in rural demand. Good rainfall also ensures good yields, which will keep food prices under control,” said Mayank Shah, vice president of Parle Products. Shah estimates that the growth rate of India’s FMCG industry is 11-12% this fiscal year, up from 7-8% in FY25.
However, economists remember that only knowing the amount of monsoon rainfall is not enough to determine its impact on agriculture.
“Forecasting for monsoons is the first positive signal for the upcoming agricultural season. However, the amount of rainfall exceeds the amount of rainfall, and more importantly, how well the rainfall is distributed in time, season and geographical location,” Dharmakirti Joshi said. “There are other climate shocks, such as the increase in the frequency of heat waves, which may affect the agricultural sector.”
