The Global Trade Research Project (GTRI) said it is necessary to view China’s warning of retaliation against countries that align with the U.S. efforts to isolate Beijing from a global supply chain reality perspective.
It said leading economies, including the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and India, rely heavily on China’s industrial and consumer goods supply, adding that China is embedded in all levels of the global production hierarchy – finished, medium products and parts and parts and parts.
Total replacement of China requires building manufacturing capacity from the raw materials stage, a country has not yet made on a large scale.
India must draw independent curriculum, strengthen its domestic manufacturing bases and reduce critical import dependencies through targeted investments targeted toward deep manufacturing, the think tank said.
At the same time, India should be firmly committed to WTO-led multilateral trade norms and avoid risking actions that violate global rules, it said. “India should not be included in binary geopolitical competition. Instead, it must interact with China and the United States in an equal way, guided by strategic autonomy, economic interests and global trade principles, rather than external pressures.” Government data shows that the United States remains India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year, with bilateral trade value of US$131.84 billion, while the country’s trade deficit expanded to US$99.2 billion during the same period.
In the last fiscal year, India signed 14.5% exports to China in 2023-24 to $14.25 billion, compared with $16.66 billion. However, imports increased by 11.52% in 2024-25 to $113.45 billion, compared with $1001.73 billion in 2023-24.
China continues to be India’s second largest trading partner, in 2024-25, compared with US$118.4 billion in 2024-25, in 2024-25.
India is reaching a bilateral trade agreement with the United States to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.
