In any strategic or tactical situation, there are three elements at work. The first is the original provocation, the second is the upgrade, and the third is the response to it – the response is an attempt to establish deterrence through conventional means, while the fourth is to avoid or mitigate an upgrade called a downgrade. All four elements work within 65 hours on the evening of May 7, 2025 and May 10, 2025 between India and Pakistan.
The initial escalation in the case was a speech delivered by Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir, who dragged out the phantoms of the two countries’ theory from some dark closets and introduced the speech before the gathering of Pakistani expats. General Munir expressed: “Our religion is different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our ideas are different, our ambitions are different, this is the basis of the theory of the two countries. We are two countries; we are not the same country.” Munir also mentioned the founding Islamic principle of Pakistan, saying that the country’s “foundation is the foundation of Kalima” and Kashmir is their “jugate”.
A week later, Pakistan-sponsored terrorists sponsored terrorists in the Baisaran Valley in the Anatnag region of Jamu and Kashmir, slaughtering an innocent group of tourists. Is this just a coincidence? The answer must be emphasized.
This is where the headlines show first. Because the initial provocation was not only the Holocaust itself. This is an act to clarify the theories of the two countries that have been discredited. What General Munier said on March 23, 1940 is what Muhammad Ali Jinnah said, “It is difficult to appreciate why our Hindu friends do not understand the true nature of Islam and Hinduism. Hindus and Muslims belong to two different religious philosophy, social customs and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature, and literature,[s]. They are neither intermarried nor dined together, and in fact they belong to two different civilizations, which are mainly based on conflicting ideas and ideas…”
In December 1971, when Bangladesh was founded, the people of East Pakistan rejected this theory. What is the relevance of this inflammatory speech today, when a nation based on faith cannot integrate language groups, even if two and a half decade-old language groups subscribe to the same religion? This effectively blows and continues to blow the two-country theories out of the water completely.
Strategic thinkers and political leaders attempted to establish flawed equivalence between India and Pakistan, perhaps unfamiliar with history, even events around the Indian subdistrict, and what happened in 1971, which completely eliminated the basic foundation of the subdistrict, when the Western Pakistani army began to live on March 26, 1971, until the end of the population, until their situation continued to last until the end of freedom. On December 16, 1971, as an independent state of Bangladesh, the Indian army, with the assistance of Mukti Bahini, caused a decisive defeat to the Western Pakistani army.
By the way, even after India’s division, many Muslims consciously chose to stay in India. It is therefore obvious that even before the events of March to December 1971, theories of these two countries were theories of India’s independence and the establishment of Pakistan’s theocratic state. These are undisputed facts.
The 22 April 2025 massacre frightened the souls of India. Across the country, there is a horror and extreme anger about how and in what ways and in what ways innocent people are executed before their families. Pakistan obviously knows that India won’t sit quietly.
The response comes in the form of a targeted strike at Pakistani terrorist camps, which has become a tool for national policies now dating back to 1980. Starting with Operation Sindor, India has made it clear that India does not want an escalation.
The Press Information Bureau statement put out on May 7 at 1.44 am made that clear: “Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted. India has demonstrated considered restraint in selection of targets and method of execution. These steps come in the wake of the barbaric Pahalgam terrorist attack in which 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen were murdered. We are living up to the commitment that the person responsible for this attack will be responsible.”
However, Pakistan chose to escalate the situation by making major shots at the Line of Control and international borders, including military devices attempting to target India. Drones and missiles are intercepted by India’s air defense infrastructure and are effectively neutralized. India’s response was then to retaliate against the sources of these violations. In the classic sense, revenge is also an act of self-defense, not an act of escalation.
The downgrade campaign must be taken after establishing a traditional deterrence to neutralize its original targets and to keep in line with the early morning of May 7, 2025.
This also happened when the Director General of the Military Operations of Pakistan Army (DGMO) launched a call, and it was obvious that Pakistan was looking for a downgrade. That’s how things end in 65 hours. Classic formats of provocation, escalation, conventional deterrence and downgrade play a role in almost textbook accuracy.
This is given in terms of other countries’ participation in crisis management and mitigation measures. When things get quite hot between the two countries equipped with nuclear weapons, especially when Pakistan uses nuclear shields to carry out terrorism, other national players and stakeholders in the international system naturally become anxious. This is a natural order of crisis management and mitigation.
