NDA is worried in Bihar with little reason

tThe WAQF (Amendment) Act, in 2025, has caused controversy in India, especially among Muslim leaders. It triggered the resignation of some Janata Dal (U) leaders, causing turmoil in the ruling coalition of JD (U) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar and the Centre. The unrest has raised questions about the election impact of the National Democratic Union (NDA) as Bihar will conduct a poll later this year.

Although Bihar has a large number of Muslim voters who have the key to election success among many parliamentary voters, it is worry that the WAQF bill may adversely affect the election prospects of the Bihar NDA, as it is omnipotent since the JD (U)-BJP alliance has never been the choice of Muslim voters.

According to the 2011 census, Muslims account for about 18% of the population of Bihar. Among the approximately 40 parliamentary constituencies, Muslims make up more than 25% of voters, and another 20 seats have 20-25% of Muslim voters. In some constituencies, such as Amour and Kochadhaman, more than 70% of Muslim voters are. Overall, Muslims significantly influenced 60-70 of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats. The unified Muslim voting can achieve results in these areas.

However, historically, the JD(U)-BJP Alliance has not been able to get a lot of support from the community. The only exception was that in the 2015 general election, JD (U) formed an alliance with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. Although Nitish Kumar is a supporter of the Pasmanda Muslims, he still cannot attract Muslims to vote due to his party’s alliance with the Centre and State BJP.

Evidence from the post-explosion investigation by Lokniti-CSD suggests that over the past three decades, the RJD-led Mahagathbandan has won a large portion of the Muslim vote. In the February 2005 General Assembly elections, 40% of Muslims voted in favor of the RJD-led coalition. 4% voted for the BJP-led coalition, which included JD(U); Congress 13%. A large number of Muslim voters (34%) voted for other smaller parties and independents. This may be due to some dissatisfaction among Muslim voters after RJD and his allies took office for 15 years. There was a broken verdict in the election.

There was no significant change in the Muslim voting in parliamentary elections held in October of that year, with 9% of Muslim voters voting for the NDA and 51% voting for the RJD-led coalition. It is important to mention that during this election, Congress was an ally of the RJD, not in the General Assembly elections held in February 2005.

During the 2010 General Assembly elections, NDAs, including Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and BJP, saw an increase in support from Muslims (21%). By contrast, support for RJD was distributed, with 32% of the support party supporting Congress, and did not form an alliance with RJD during that election.

During the 2015 parliamentary elections, Mahagathbandhan was composed of RJD, JD (U) and Congress and received 69% of Muslims support, while the NDA received only 6% of Muslims. The rift between BJP and JD (U) between 2013 and the alliance between JD (U) and RJD may have helped JD (U) gain credibility among Muslim voters.

In 2020, JD(U) rejoined the NDA. Muslims still have very few votes on the NDA, with only 5% of Muslims supporting it. Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD, received 76% of the Muslim votes, a significant increase compared to 2015.

This clearly shows that the NDA, which is the main partners of JD(U) and BJP, has never been a beneficiary of the Muslim voting. Even if Muslims are dissatisfied or angry with the passage of the WAQF (Amendment) bill, it may not have a negative impact on the political prospects of Bihar NDA.

Although the WAQF (Amendment) Act undoubtedly aroused dissatisfaction among Muslims in Bihar and India as a whole, its political influence in Bihar may be limited. Voting data show that the JD (U)-BJP alliance has never been the primary choice for Muslim voters except during the brief coalition between RJD and Congress in 2015. So while the controversy may deepen dissatisfaction, it is unlikely to change the election dynamics in 2025 – unless other variables change the existing voting model.

Sanjay Kumar and Krishangi Sinha with Lokniti-CSD