Will China surrender to us in the tariff war? Donald Trump, we are more vulnerable because…
Experts estimate that the increase in tariffs could result in US ordinary citizens $1,300, the U.S. GDP growth rate could fall by 0.2%, and China’s GDP growth is most likely to fall by 0.7%. Beijing’s economic growth rate in fiscal 2025 is likely to be 4%, down from 5% in fiscal 2024.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump
Will China surrender to the United States in the first tariff war initiated by President Donald Trump based on his U.S. policy and make America great again? The tariff war began with the Trump administration imposing 10% tariffs on February 1 and remained enlarged. The tariffs then increased by another 10% on March 4. By April 2, U.S. tariffs reached 54%, and China retaliated and imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump took further action on April 9 and raised U.S. tariffs to 125%, which later reached 145%. China met a 125% tariff on April 11. Both countries are almost impossible to continue bilateral trade.
How will the tariff war affect us, China?
Experts estimate that the increase in tariffs could result in US ordinary citizens $1,300, the U.S. GDP growth rate could fall by 0.2%, and China’s GDP growth is most likely to fall by 0.7%. Beijing’s economic growth is likely to be 4% in fiscal 2025. On the other hand, global trade may cost 0.2% of commodity trade, while the world economy may fall into recession.
Is China ready for the trade war?
Earlier, China lowered bilateral trade and cut its exports to the United States from 19.8% of total exports in 2018 to 12.8% in 2023. It also diversifies its trade and increases procurement from commodities such as Brazilian soybeans. In addition, it resorts to non-tariff barriers, such as export bans on rare earth minerals that are crucial to the U.S. industry. Beijing is also targeting Trump’s support for the country’s U.S. agricultural sector. Donald Trump has been severely criticized by friends and allies, expressing flexibility and has ordered exemptions for consumer electronics to alleviate domestic price increases.
xi jinping showed resistance and refused to blink
Without any sign of surrendering to the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed contempt and declared that his country was not “not afraid” and that it would “end”. He tried to whip Chinese nationalism, invoking the cultural concept of “pain-taking”, which means lasting hardship. Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning shared a video of former Chinese leader Mao Zeding during the 1953 Korean War. On X, she shared a video on social media platforms where she wrote: “We are Chinese. We are not afraid of provocation. We are not going to back down.”
Will China be more aggressive?
If the trade war escalates, China will have other weapons. It holds U.S. fiscal bonds worth $760 billion. If these bonds are sold, the dollar will be fined and may depreciate as before. However, as import costs will rise, the yuan will be strengthened, which may damage its own economy. Beijing also has the leverage effect of controlling rare earth minerals and supply chains for electronics and medicines.
Will Beijing laugh?
President Jining’s recent visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia proved his willingness to strengthen ties with his neighbors. In addition, in an effort to actively oppose the isolation of the United States, China plans to improve ties with the EU, Southeast Asia and other regions.
Given its autocratic system, strategic preparation and global propaganda, Beijing will certainly gain the upper hand in the trade war. On the other hand, Donald Trump will be under democratic pressure and consumers’ dependence on Chinese goods, making Washington even more vulnerable.
