Nuclear war or asteroid strikes won't end life on Earth; NASA-backed research reveals true villains

If you are concerned about the lifespan of civilization and calculate possible causes, such as climate change, nuclear war or asteroids, you can stand out from the list of final threats. According to new research from Japan's Toho University, the real long-term danger on NASA-backed Earth is the slow and subtle loss of oxygen – a billion years away. No, we are not talking about any plot of an apocalypse movie, but about a stark reality. We know that it does not end with fire or ice, but with the gradual disappearance of breathable air. While this is not something we see in our lives, scientists are taking this seriously, as the countdown to the oxygen extinction has begun. So, what does this mean for the future of the Earth's livable life span?

When will it happen

The NASA-backed study warns that the Earth could lose its oxygen in about a billion years. The study, published in Natural Earth Science, predicts that oxygen levels gradually decline due to changes in the Earth's atmosphere. Over time, this transition is associated with the increase in the heat of the sun.

How will this happen

The study, led by scientists Kazumi Ozaki and Christopher Reinhard, uses computer models to predict changes in the Earth's atmosphere. As the sun continues to get hotter, more carbon dioxide will collapse. This will affect the life of plants, as plants rely on carbon dioxide to produce oxygen through photosynthesis. Without enough plants, oxygen levels will begin to drop significantly.

“The atmosphere will return to a similar state before the major oxidation event that happened about 2.4 billion years ago,” Reinhard said. This suggests that in the distant future, the Earth's atmosphere may once again become rich in methane and have poor oxygen.

What does this mean to us

The loss of oxygen can make humans and animals uninhabitable. This process may happen rapidly, with oxygen levels dropping completely within 10,000 years. Under such extreme conditions, only certain microorganisms can survive.
“It's a reminder that even planets like Earth won't remain habitable forever,” Reinhard added.

Why this matters

Although this event is still far from the future, it raises important questions for scientists studying the habitability of other planets. Since oxygen is often considered a key indicator of life, understanding the ultimate loss of oxygen on Earth can help scientists better evaluate other planets’ potential to support life.

These findings show the complexity and vulnerability of Earth’s systems and how they change over time, even without human interference.