Peter Van Onselen: New liberal Sussan Ley sits on a ticking time bomb – but has the political world underestimated her?

Sussan Ley barely won the Holy Grail of Poisoning Becoming a Liberal Leader, beating Angus Taylor by five votes.

In other words, if three liberals change their minds in a few months, her tenure in the highest job would be short.

Rest assured, Taylor and his supporters won’t sit down, accept the defeat and end his takeover.

Taylor will guarantee his loyalty to the liberals’ first female federal leader, but the color of the party room will change when the new senator confirms on July 1 – with it, Ley’s mastery of leadership will become more relaxed.

Liberals have a depth of despair after a great failure. Brendan Nelson didn’t last a year when John Howard lost his 2007 election, and the newly cast opposition leader was before Malcolm Turnbull knocked him down.

Turnbull, like Taylor, had a near failure after the election, and then told everyone and anyone who would listen to him was better.

Taylor and his supporters band will now hope to recalibrate their plans for the acquisition over the next three years.

It would have been so long to think that it would take for them to blend their behaviors, and the challenge would be wishful thinking of Ley and his supporters.

In fact, the two candidates were seriously polluted in the May 3 failure.

Taylor is the shadow treasurer who failed to develop a compelling alternative economic narrative despite the per capita recession that has caused most of Labor’s first term and interest rates to rise…and the costs of living crises.

Similarly, Ley, who has never served as a compelling alternative leader as a party representative, has been too loose and rarely seen in the details of policy struggles.

Her victory today is the victory of the party’s moderates, with the Conservatives supporting Taylor as their preferred candidate.

So what will happen now? Ley will choose her front desk, but in reality, most characters have been assigned as part of the gain to get the votes she needs.

These deals will be made public when the Shadow Department is announced in the coming days.

The intimacy of the vote is a sign of two clear things: neither candidate is a brilliant performer, and the party room is completely free from its messy path.

Ley is not without talent and has a well-educated education in taxation and economics. But she has not shown that the certificates have been transferred to the way she prosecuted political arguments.

Angus Taylor was defeated by Ley in a party room vote Tuesday morning

Liberals need to return to their core business: promoting themselves as better economic managers.

It was Taylor-led’s court, but his underperformance as Shadow Preasure masked the goal, ultimately giving him the support he needed to win.

Over the next 12 months, the labor force will seek super-changes, imminent cuts in income tax and paintings on liberals, as it is no longer able to claim to be the mantle of tax-reducing parties – given Taylor and the co-proposed cuts in income tax relief.

Ley needs to get rid of this narrative and use her leadership early to hammer issues like super-change and unrealized gains – opposition opportunities.

Rye needs to make Tim Wilson her shadow treasurer. He is in a debate against Bill Shorten’s proposed change to Franking’s credits in 2019.

But she probably won’t throw away the portfolio when she searches for votes before today’s party room meeting.

At the same time, many liberals will also believe that if their leaders come from such voters, they have a greater chance of winning a city seat.

None of the candidates today represent city seats, suggesting that while Ley is not well-led in the city revival, neither is Taylor.

The changes passed down from generation to generation are likely to be the liberal path to restore power, but today’s vote is not hard.

Lai is 63 years old this year. When it is a thing to elect the party’s first female leader, if she is blown up by power soon after, it could become a negative for itself in the next election.

As the old saying goes, opposition leaders are the hardest work in parliament. Ley is about to discover how hard it will be.