In Kashmir Himalayas, permanent freezing and melting are becoming a unique environmental threat. one New research It has been found that melted permafrost may affect 193 km of roads, 2,415 households, 903 alpine lakes and hydropower projects in eight mountainous areas.
Permafrost is any type of ground – soil, sediments, rocks, etc. It has been frozen continuously for at least two years. This has been the case with most permafrost on Earth for thousands of years.
But as global warming, the permafrost began to melt slowly and had huge consequences. Permafrost stores several tons of organic carbon. When melted, carbon is released into the environment, including in the form of methane, a very effective greenhouse gas and climate pollutant.
Therefore, the stability of the permafrost in the Himalayas in India has attracted people’s attention.
New research published in Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environmentco-authored by researchers from Kashmir University and IIT-Bombay University.
According to this study, permafrost accounts for 64.8% of the total geographical areas of Jamu & Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh. Of this 26.7%, there are continuous permafrost (most of the soil is frozen), 23.8% are discontinuous (more than half of the soil is frozen), and 14.3% are sporadic (sporadic soil intermittent patches).
A “critical” study
“In the region, the Ladakh Plateau contains the highest range (87%) of permafrost, while the Jamu, Shagel Valley and the foothill plains of the Sivalik are not any permafrost,” the authors wrote in the paper.
The corresponding author of the study, Irfan Rashid, is an assistant professor in the Department of Geoinformatics, Kashmir University of Srinagar. The team analyzed weekly satellite data for weekly satellite data from 2002 to 2023.
“In more than 21 years, we checked 56 images each year, totaling a total dataset of 1,176 land surface temperature images,” he said. The data came from the ship of NASA sensors and the Aqua satellite called MODIS. Rashid said: “Each pixel [its images] Represents an area of 1 square kilometer. “We analyzed about 222,236 pixels in J&K and Ladakh. This extensive dataset allows us to determine temperatures that are consistent and areas with lack of freezing conditions or intermittent conditions. ”
Reet Kamal, associate professor in the Department of Civil Engineering in IIT-Ropar, said the study (he was not involved) could be an initial step in assessing the effects of long-term permafrost degradation.
“This is a crucial study because permafrost is largely overlooked and no similar studies have been conducted in the region,” Kamal said. “While there are some studies in Uttarakhand, more research is urgently needed to better understand the risks associated with permafrost degradation.”
According to experts, the main factor driving the degradation of permafrost is the increase in surface temperature.
Farooq Ahmad Dar, assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Disaster Management at Kashmir University, said that in addition to natural causes, human factors can also affect permafrost. “Activities such as deforestation, land use changes and wildfires have serious effects on permafrost and its stability. Vegetation insulates and protects permafrost from direct solar radiation. Natural processes, e.g. [earthquakes] Shake the ground frequently, including permafrost, and break it down. ” he said.
He also added that activities related to infrastructure development, such as the construction of dams, routes and real estate development, also affected the permafrost in western Himalayas. “It has also been observed that tourism and related activities in the region often lead to increased stress and affect stability in permafrost areas,” Dahl said.
Uncertainty abounds
The risk associated with permanent freezing and melting will be significantly felt in the thousands of glacial lakes in India’s Himalayan arc, the study said.
In J&K itself, the authors identified 332 former ice lakes, 65 of which had different (non-trivial) glacial lake outbreak flooding (GLOF) risks. Ice-a-life lakes are formed when water from melted glaciers is in the landscape or blocks its flow. The Central Water Commission reported last year that between 2011 and 2024, the coverage of “glacial lakes and other water bodies” in the Himalayas increased by 33%.
In places with steep glacial landscapes, rapidly moving ice sometimes washes the bedrock below, further degrading permafrost. In February 2021, the Rock-Ice avalanche in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, is an example: the avalanche is triggered by a glacier, triggering the adjacent rock material to be frozen on a pure slope.
In a similar situation, Lake Ronak in southern Sikkim received significant attention in October 2023. The lake is surrounded by ice ora, which consists primarily of material containing permafrost. Rashid said that over time, the slope failure caused by temperature fluctuations is degraded by permafrost.
According to Kamal of IIT-Ropar, permafrost degradation may also adversely affect the availability of groundwater and river water. “In the form of rocky glaciers, permafrost helps the flow of rivers, and in some areas its degradation may affect the basic flow of rivers. However, no comprehensive research was conducted to accurately identify or quantify these effects in the case of India. Therefore, a definite statement on this issue would be premature birth,” he said.
He added that permafrost “can also pose a risk to infrastructure, but the extent of potential damage remains uncertain without in-depth research.”
Plan permafrost
Experts suggest that although existing roads cannot be closed, future roads should be informed by the presence or absence of permafrost. This could be a long-term strategy to ensure sustainable construction of ecologically vulnerable areas.
According to Rashid, although projects such as hydropower projects have been evaluated adequately, they have taken into account GLOF and other Cryospher hazards. “The awareness of the risks associated with multiple permafrost has emerged only after major disasters. Previously, GLOF had a major relationship with Nepal, but events such as Kedarnath Disaster, South Lhonak Lake Busterst and events in Ladakh have emphasized their broad relevance more broadly.”
DAR agreed: To mitigate potential risks, he said it is crucial to raise these findings to the level of implementation, especially where permafrost is available.
“Families in permafrost-rich areas face varying degrees of risk,” he added. “In Ladakh, steep slopes containing permafrost are home to residential settlements. Ladakh’s military infrastructure is at risk and raises concerns about national security. Many strategic roads pass through permafrost areas and degradation due to years of freezing or waste of quality may have serious implications for connectivity.”
“We rely mainly on satellite remote sensing to monitor land surface temperatures,” Kamal added. “However, there is no In-place Monitoring is carried out in these areas. Deploying a data logger in the same water collection area will allow us to track temperature fluctuations more accurately. These data loggers can also help calibrate satellite data and identify any biases, making permafrost monitoring more accurate and reliable. ”
Hirra Azmat is a Kashmir-based journalist who provides a wide range of introductions to science, health and the environment. Her stories appear in various local and national publications.
publishing – March 25, 2025 at 05:30 am IST
