Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

Mumbai: The last fiscal year of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) transfer of surplus to the North neighborhood could be as high as Rs 3 lakh, much higher than estimated a month ago. Strong dollar sales, higher foreign exchange earnings, and expected increase in interest income will help boost spending, economists' recent report said. The new estimate of Rs 30,000 is estimated to be 50 per cent higher than the Rs 2.1 crore paid in the previous fiscal year.Preliminary estimates for the fiscal year 25 work with a stadium of about Rs 25 crore, showing ET polls from 10 institutions released on April 14.
Only ANZ Bank Group has transferred an estimated Rs 3.25 crore. The government estimates a dividend of Rs 2.3 lakh in the budget.

“We estimate that depending on the supply level, we estimate RBI dividend of 260,000 to 3 lakh rupees. The higher dividend creates Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC No. 1 Bank, creating fiscal space of 0.1 to 0.2 per cent of GDP.”

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As the transfer time window approaches, economists are raising estimated spending. “RBI's dividend spending to the government is expected to increase in fiscal 25 years, as a result of higher revenues from the deployment of foreign exchange reserves with increased fiscal yields in the U.S.,” a report from the ICICI research team said. “This increase is further supported by a strong committee on foreign exchange operations and interest income from government securities.”
Dividends can help the center close the fiscal gap. In addition, government spending will tilt liquidity towards the banking system, and liquidity will be visible starting in early July.
“Gross dollar sales rose to $371.6 billion in FY25, till February versus $153 billion in FY24. Meanwhile, decline in GSec yields has resulted in MTM (market to market) gains on RBI's holdings of rupee securities. In FY25, RBI's holdings of rupee securities increased by ₹1.95 lakh crore to ₹15.6 lakh as of March 2025, according to IDFC No. 1 Bank.

Please read also: RBI foreign exchange revenue is expected to rise, paying the government

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is a best-seller for foreign exchange reserves of other Asian central banks in January. According to estimates from Nomura and DBS Bank, foreign exchange reserves in September 2024 were estimated to reach US$700.4 billion in September 2024, and the Reserve Bank of India estimated that more than US$125 billion have been sold.

“The Reserve Bank of India has conducted a large amount of U.S. dollar sales to support the rupee and maintain exchange rate stability. In addition, tight system liquidity has prompted the Reserve Bank of India to expand its funds to the bank, thus contributing to its income. The contingency regulations are expected to be similar to last year, or higher. According to IDFC First Bank, the food is 42,800 crore and is expected to be between Rs. 4,000 crore and Rs. 8,000 crore.

The amount of surplus of dividends was derived based on the Economic Capital Framework (ECF) adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, based on the recommendation of the Reserve Bank to review the ECF chaired by former Governor Bimal Jalan, through the Expert Committee on August 26, 2019. The Commission recommends that the risk supply under the or should be risk buffer (CRB) be kept within the range of 6.5% to 5.5% of the RBI balance sheet.