Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump effectively announced a trade war with the world, new economic forecasts and surveys will show the initial consequences.
A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund will lower its view of its economic growth in a new forecast released on Tuesday.
The next day, the Purchasing Managers Index from Japan to Europe to the United States will provide a first glimpse of the first coordination of manufacturing and service activities since April 2 released Trump’s global tariffs (now partially shelved). Business surveys in large economies are also on the calendar.
The combined images will provide Washington-gathered Finance Secretary and central banks with the opportunity to assess the initial damages Trump’s attempt to reconnect the global trading system.
“Our new growth forecast will include significant price cuts, but not recessions,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday. “We will also see markers of inflation forecasts in certain countries. We want to warn that long-term high uncertainty increases the risk of financial market pressure.”
Those clouds that shroud the global economy are unlikely to last for some time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the U.S. central banks “have the ability to wait for a clearer wait” before considering a change in monetary policy, while ECB head Christine Lagarde cannot say whether the uncertainty has reached its peak.
Meanwhile, Georgieva hopes that the days ahead (also have a panel of 20 financial directors) may reduce the temperature of global trade relations.
“We need a more resilient world economy, not a divided situation,” she said. The gathering in Washington “provides a vital forum for dialogue at times of importance.”
Elsewhere, central bank decisions in Russia and Indonesia, major euro zone wage indicators, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book will be the focus.
The United States and Canada
In the U.S., when the University of Michigan issues Friday’s revised data, investors will be aware of any additional deterioration in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Tariffs and their risks to the economy and inflation have been surveyed in recent months.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s beige book will provide anecdotes of regional economic conditions and a glimpse of government policies and uncertainties that influence business decisions.
Earlier that day, the government is expected to report an increase in sales for new homes in March. Since October, builders have been working to get buyers out of the scenario as mortgage rates are largely above 6.5%. Home resale data will be released Thursday.
On the same day, a report on orders for durable goods in March will help provide clues about the needs of the equipment business.
Neel Kashkari, Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack were Fed officials who were originally scheduled to speak.
In the north, the Canadian election entered its final week, and polls showed that Mark Carney’s Liberal Party was leading by about five points, which put them in the majority in the trade war with the United States.
Trade negotiator Steve Verheul will speak at a meeting in Toronto, the leading architect in Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs. February retail data and March flash estimates will reveal whether Canadian consumers have cut spending for the third straight month amid trade uncertainty.
Asia
In Asia, the week begins, China reports high-quality interest rates on Monday; economists predict stable results. Recent data show growth forecasts.
Also on Monday, Indonesia released March trade data, which would provide health for the country’s external sectors ahead of Trump’s tariffs launch, while the Philippines could release another March payment balance surplus.
New Zealand released March trade data on Tuesday, while Taiwan and Hong Kong reported employment data.
The next day, Indonesia’s central banks are likely to pay interest rates for the third consecutive meeting rate to support Indiana, one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia this year.
On the same day, the April PMI data from Australia, Japan and India will look at any impact on the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S.-led trade war.
Malaysia and Singapore released inflation rates on Wednesday, and South Korean consumer confidence data expired, the day before the country released its first-quarter GDP budget.
Japan revealed sales of Tokyo CPI as well as department stores on Friday, while Singapore will see private housing prices in the first quarter and industrial production in March.
In the week, India and Thailand also reported foreign exchange reserves.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
On Monday, most of Europe and central banks gathered for the IMF meeting holiday, with most of the attention going on the United States. There are many policy makers on the calendar, including the speech delivered by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday.
The main focus of the eurozone will be investigation reports. Consumer confidence in the region will be released on Tuesday, with the ECB publishing a survey of professional forecasters on the same day. Lagarde said last week that its wage tracker deserved wages were growing slowly on Wednesday.
At the time, investors might also be most concerned about PMI, the first glimpse of manufacturing and service activity since U.S. tariffs in early April.
A closely watched IFO investigation of Germany’s confidence in IFO business will be held on Thursday, indicating how the company’s sentiment responds to trade tensions and is more active in reaching a deal with the federal coalition government. A similar index in France was released on Friday.
The UK’s PMI report was also released on Wednesday, as did March’s latest public financial numbers. Retail data will be released on Friday.
Swiss National Bank will release its first-quarter earnings on Thursday, while Martin Schlegel introduced its annual shareholder meeting the next day.
Finally, Russia’s central bank will announce its latest currency decision on Friday. Recent consumer price pressures may not be enough to convince policy makers to lower the benchmark from a record 21%. Officials may sound bad, though, but potential speeds have been cut later this year.
Latin America
Xinkong received a $20 billion deal with the IMF, including $12 billion in upfront payments, with Argentina reporting on February GDP-Proxy data on Tuesday.
South America’s second-ranked economy has seen a V-shaped recovery after signing in 2024, and is expected to lead the growth of the region’s big economies this year and the next.
Colombia will release economic activity data in February after its January GDP-Proxy report estimates, prompting some analysts to mark its 2025 growth forecast.
Paraguay’s central bank can move from its current 6%, with inflation rising by 100 barrels to 4.4% in four months.
Brazil released mid-month inflation data for Friday April, and if March is any guide, the title print should push further to the top of the central bank’s target range.
Mexico offers February economic activity and mid-month consumer price reports.
Negative GDP in January – Proxy prints have sent Mexico’s economy contracting for the second consecutive quarter – meeting the definition of a technological recession.
Inflation may be around the previous 3.93% reading, only at the top of the central bank’s inflation target upper limit. Mexico Banco de Mexico or Banxico will next meet to consider its benchmark rate (now 9%) in mid-May.
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Published on April 20, 2025
