Iranian security officials said Tehran's leaders remained deeply concerned about the possibility of Netanyahu's strike or no deal, senior Iranian security officials said. However, in just three weeks, the United States and Iran held three rounds of talks to prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. The fourth round is expected to be held in Rome soon.
In this story, Reuters spoke with officials and diplomats from all aspects of the negotiations, who disclosed previously unreported details under discussion. Everyone asked to talk about ongoing conversations anonymously.
Eight sources said the initial discussion framework retained the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) — Trump was scrapped by Trump in his first semester.
All sources said a deal may not be fundamentally different from previous conventions, which he called was the worst in history but would extend its duration to 25 years, tightening verification and expanding the so-called sunset clause of the pause, but not completely removing aspects of Iran's nuclear program. According to all sources, under the terms discussed, Iran will limit the size of stocks and the type of centrifuge and dilute, export or seal 60% of its uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) review – all of which said all sources said all said all said all said substantive sanctions relief. The U.S. State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry and Netanyahu office did not respond to requests for comment.
Dennis Ross, a former negotiator for Republicans and Democrats, said any new deal must go further than the JCPOA through permanent structural changes to Tehran’s nuclear energy, reducing its infrastructure to the point where development bombs are no longer an actual choice.
“Anything less will keep the threshold threat intact,” he told Reuters.
However, several red lines are emerging that negotiators must circumvent agreements and avoid future military operations.
The problem that Washington and Israel say must stop completely is that Iran has the ability to enrich uranium, which makes Iran rely on imported uranium to import uranium as the only existing nuclear power plant on the Gulf Coast, Bushel.
Netanyahu demands “zero abundance” and a Libyan-style agreement to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Iran says its right to enrich is unnegotiable. However, the size of uranium stocks, outbound shipping stocks and centrifuges are under discussion, three Iranian officials said.
All sources said Iran would have a 3.67% limit, consistent with the JCPOA, including three Iranian officials, according to talks in April. Iranian sources said Tehran is also willing to grant the International Atomic Energy Agency an opportunity to expand its nuclear site.
The proposals are not to completely remove Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure as Israel and some U.S. officials want to, but to lock in permanent restrictions on uranium enrichment to prevent any breakthroughs, sources said. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff appears to acknowledge his position in comments last week, but later said Iran must “stop and eliminate” the richness.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East College in Washington and founding director of the Iran program, said Iran may accept long-term rest by extending the sunset clause.
“If Iranians are smart, they will be placed in longer sunset clauses,” Vatanka said.
Another possible trade-off could involve Iran keeping the smallest abundance, with 5,000 centrifuges while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, which may be derived from Russia, one of three Iranian security officials.
To limit the restrictions on enrichment, Tehran demanded watertight assurance that Trump will not give up on the nuclear deal again, the three Iranian officials said. The three sources said that in the red line set by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it reduced its enriched uranium storage to below levels agreed in the 2015 transaction. The IAEA said in December that Iran has been able to “significantly” increase its abundant uranium to 60% purity.
JCPOA only allows Iran to accumulate enriched uranium produced by its first generation IR-1 centrifuge, but now Iran is using a more advanced model that is prohibited by the 2015 transaction.
A senior regional source close to Tehran said the current debate on Iran's uranium stockpile is about whether Iran “dilutes part of it – diluted – at home, while sending it abroad, possibly to Russia.”
According to sources, Iran has even proposed the idea of selling rich uranium to the United States. Iran currently operates about 15,000 centrifuges. Under the leadership of the JCPOA, Iran is allowed to operate approximately 6,000.
“Essentially, negotiations are shaping “JCPOA 2″ and adding some additional Trump as a victory, while Iran can still maintain its full power,” the senior Iranian official said. Another sticky point involves Iran's ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities. Washington and Israel say Iran should stop making missiles. Iran countered that it has the right to defend itself. An Iranian official had previously told Reuters it would not exceed the requirements of the 2015 deal but was just to avoid making missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as a “good intention”.
A regional security official said Washington urged the inclusion of the ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran “continues to reject any discussion.” “The problem is that without solving the missile problem, Trump cannot claim that the new agreement exceeds the JCPOA,” he added.
Former negotiator Ross pointed out the contradiction: Trump gave up the JCPOA because he was too weak and now faces the reality that Tehran has the threshold for nuclear weapons.
“It is irrefutable to accept mirroring or soften the original transaction,” he said. He suggested that a transaction must ship the centrifuge from 20,000 to 1,000, ship all the enriched inventory, and conduct invasive, penalized inspections.
Strike risk
Analyst Vatanka compared Iran's current plight to the 1988 decision by the founder of the regime, Ruhollah Khomeini, to accept a ceasefire with Iraq, a famous moment when he famously compared the “bitter of poison”.
“It's about survival,” Vataka said. “It's not surrender.”
Diplomats say Netanyahu saw a rare opening: Last year's military campaign paralyzed Iran's defense and undermined the main deterrent force of Hezbollah's missile, Tehran.
“This is a historical window of Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear site,” said an official in the Middle East. The United States is opposed to such a move for a number of reasons – mainly the concern of Arab Gulf of Mexico countries, because Washington cannot ignore it given its strategic and economic ties in the region.
“Nevertheless, it still has to weigh Israel's security calculations,” he said. “So, while the United States may not be directly involved, it may provide indirect support. It will be a tough move for Israel – but not impossible.” In recent weeks, the U.S. military has soared to strengthen the Middle East. The Pentagon has deployed six B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, an Indian Ocean – a location used to support its military operations in the Middle East.
In addition, the United States currently has two aircraft carriers in the region and has moved its air defense system from Asia.
Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Percy-speaking Middle East expert, warned that the strike could slow down Iran’s plans but would not eliminate it. “You can't bomb expertise,” he said. “The knowledge is there. Iran has mastered uranium enrichment.
