It has been learned that Saudi Arabia is one of India’s top three crude oil suppliers and is considering increasing crude oil supply to India amid the surplus in the Chinese market and the recession. Riyadh may be willing to provide Indian oil supply at preferential rates to increase its share of New Delhi’s total crude oil exports.
The slowdown in China’s economy and focus on electric vehicles could further weaken Saudi oil exports to Beijing in Riyadh’s calculations, so the Indian market is profitable. According to energy experts, Saudi Arabia also hopes to invest in three types of refineries in East India and the west. The expansion plan in India has restored Saudi Aramco’s interest in investing in BPCL and ONGC projects.
India’s former ambassador to Nigeria and Norway, Mahesh Sachdev said Modi’s visit has considerable context, especially in the economic and security sectors. “Saudi Arabia faces some headwinds. In 2025, oil prices fell by nearly one-fifth, while OPEC+ decided to ramp up production, the current bearish trend is likely to continue. Demand for Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil buyer has lowered Sharply.
India, the second largest customer of Saudi oil company Aramco, has remained strong in crude oil, providing an attractive alternative to accelerated Saudi crude.
In 2024-25, Saudi exports to India (overwhelmingly crude oil and LPG) actually fell by more than 4%. Aramco recommends security measures, including competitive pricing and acquisition of downstream assets in India, which could reverse the trend.
