Due to its socio-economic and cultural characteristics, India will be affected by the global trade war: S Gurumurthy
S Gurumurthy, economist and political commentator for the 19th City Union Bank (Cub) of Shri v Narayanan Memorial Speech at Sastra University in Chennai | Image Source: Bijoy Ghosh
With tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump causing a shock wave in the global economy, Gurumurthy, an economic thinker and journalist, said Saturday that the issue could “make less damage to India than it would have to do to other countries.” He sees global turmoil as a catalyst for reshaping India’s economy and says India will become a “world model country” within the next 5-10 years.
Gurumurthy is speaking on the ongoing tariff standoff on the 19thTh City Union Bank (Cub) Shri V Narayanan Memorial Speech, located at Sastra University in Chennai.
He said President Trump only appears to be “always” in his plans for a “multilateralism to bilateral” trade relations with the country, adding that the progress of this situation will depend on who blinks first. He pointed out: “The days of globalization are over, the current geopolitical shift is over, and a great power like India should establish strong bilateral relations with a few countries and cannot establish multilateral relations with many countries.”
“What will the Indian government do [to tackle this]will depend on what Trump may do next. ” he said.
He said India’s debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively low compared to other countries and may manage global turmoil better than others. He cited the experience of the 2008 global financial crisis and pointed out that India has improved it due to its “family system, responsible and moderate consumption.” “We have to keep our socioeconomic intertwined.”
Track 2 diplomacy
In amid global turmoil, India can take stable measures, Gurumurthy suggests that India may have a “track 2 diplomacy” that other countries lack. “All countries are trading formally [regarding tariffs] When we trade informally; there is a consistency between leaders of these two countries. ” he explained.
Economists comment on the direct impact of the ongoing deadlock between the United States and China, predicting that we will face higher inflation and the concept of a “global economy” will fade away, paving the way for a new paradigm of “national priority” policy across the economy. He also estimates that global trade growth may shorten by less than 1%, well below the earlier forecast of 2.5%.
He looks at this question from our lens, explaining that the imposition of tariffs on superpowers is nothing new, especially the current government, which faces multidimensional challenges both at home and abroad. He said President Trump is fighting “awakening” on the one hand and is also involved under the influence of accumulated debt and current account deficits. He added that the country has also been providing primer for European security bills, but now says no.
Title ‘The future of global trade and tariffsthe meeting was hosted by editor Raghuvir Srinivasan Indian Business Line. Sastra University Vice President Dr. S Vaidhyasuramaniam and City Union Bank Chairman G Mahalingam were also present.
Published on April 20, 2025
