The company will announce its earnings on April 24, ranging from soaps and shampoos to tea and detergents. As a leader in the wider consumer goods industry, HUL’s results are closely following signals about rural recycling, investment cost inflation and resilience at discretionary expenses.
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Like in the December quarter, when the equivalent is flat and revenues are up 2% year-on-year, the March quarter is expected to provide more of the same. According to Nuvama Securities, revenue could rise 2% at modest prices, while potential sales remain stagnant, which is depressed by continued weaknesses in key categories such as tea and soap.
“EBITDA is also expected to grow 2% year-on-year. While home care and hair care should maintain strong batch growth, tea and soaps may be under pressure due to lowering grammar and price increases,” said analysts at Nuvama Securities.
Analysts added that the mid-term price increase (2%) of Q3FY25 could flow into the March quarter’s earnings, although the price of detergent was reduced.
Gross margins are expected to shrink by 107 basis points due to inflation in palm oil and tea, although EBITDA margins could increase by 25 basis points from 23.4%, which is helping by cutting advertising and other cost controls.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services also expects a static quarter, with batch growth forecast of only 1% down from 2% a year ago.
“We modeled the 1% increase in the impact of soap and tea price increases,” the broker said in a report.
“The company has implemented lower singular price gains in its portfolio. HUL’s growth has been affected by a variety of factors, including adverse hybrids, input cost inflation and shrinking seasonal demand, which together regulate the overall growth trajectory,” it added in a consumer sector preview released earlier this month.
The brokerage expects HUL revenue to grow by 3% in the quarter.
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Analysts at Emkay Securities were equally cautious, forecasting flat volumes, with revenues rising by 1.5%.
“Overall, revenue growth is expected to be 1.5% in the fourth quarter due to increased promotions, with uniform volumes expected to be uniform in the fourth quarter, while price growth drops to 1.5%. While demand remains challenging in the near term, HUL’s management expects sales growth in the second half of 2026 to resume in the second half of 2026.”
The company continues to fight against category-level pressures, rising competition, and slower rural rehabilitation. Seasonal products with shorter winters are sold shorter, while promotions in the home care sector are eroding the early gains of price increases. “With steady margins, we expect EBITDA and earnings growth to remain low,” Emkay said.
In the last quarter, HUL reported sales growth of 2% year-on-year ₹15,195 million, while net profit increased by 19% ₹30,010 million. However, management marks a sign of slowing urban demand, even as rural areas gradually recover.
“Urban growth continues to lower while gradual rural recovery continues,” CEO Rohit Jawa said on a December earnings call.
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Jefferies analysts also hope HUL releases flat volumes, making it one of the weakest among its FMCG peers. “The demand trends in the March quarter are closely similar to those in the December quarter, marked by soft cities, even if rural areas recover slightly,” they said, noting that the industry-wide growth is expected to hover around 2% of around 2%, with some exceptions such as Marico, Nestle India and Varun Beverages.
