In October 2024, Adani Green Reenwable Energy Plant in Hafda, Gujarat installed solar panels and wind turbines. Image source: AFP
As the sultry summer heat reaches its peak, our minds turn to the coming rainy season. The weather station and rainfall scale have collected data for more than a century and tell us that this season begins on June 1 when the southwest monsoon exceeds Kerala, giving or taking a week. In recent years, weather forecasts have become more accurate and the monsoon is predicted to arrive in Kerala around May 27 this year.
The southwesterly winds pass through the Indian Ocean, and the strong airflow from East Africa (Somali Jets) across the Arabian Sea (Somali Jets), bringing moisture to our land, rejuvenating our senses and alleviating our emotions.
In today’s world, these winds also carry hope for renewable energy. Awareness of climate change has made it urgent to reduce our dependence on fossil fuel-derived energy. India has a particularly keen position here. Nearly 75% of our electricity comes from coal. As part of an ambitious plan to move to low-carbon energy, the CELP aims to install wind energy by 2032, based on 45 gw of existing capacity.
Fossil fuel power plants can generate electricity when needed. Renewable energy sources such as wind have differences, which leads to lower capacity utilization. Therefore, predicting when wind will be held is crucial to make the best use of wind energy investment. The goal is to generate the maximum power for the grid while burning the least amount of fossil fuel. Seasonal climate forecasts are necessary for this program and start at the regional level. For example, the winds in Rajasthan are very poor from October to December.
Monsoon is a powerful driving force for the climate. Cool gusts of wind can be predicted and modeled, just like rainfall. In the summer, when agricultural demand is low, cities need more electricity. The electricity generated during the monsoon is a boon for the agricultural sector, as Kharif crops (planted in June and harvested in October) absorb more electricity than winter rabies crops. In windy locations such as Western Ghats, wind turbines produce 70% of their annual power between June and September.
However, during this season, the speed of surface winds is very variable. This change is expected to be very useful in minimizing deficits or surpluses in power generation. This leads to the perfection of the numerical weather forecast model, with resolutions of several hundred meters, kilometers, etc. Using such a model, the Chennai National Wind Energy Institute has developed the Indian Wind Picture Atlas, a very useful tool for planning future wind farms.
What about AI? The quantity (and quality) of high-density data for radar and satellite images is growing rapidly. A dense technology such as Google MetNet3 (such as Google’s Metnet3) is integrated with measurements including wind speed, temperature, etc. through relatively few weather stations. This allows the model to estimate wind speed in areas between sites, resulting in a high-resolution wind speed map with a small amount of direct measurement data.
This article was written in collaboration with Sushil Chandani, who is engaged in molecular modeling.
publishing – May 18, 2025 at 05:45 am
