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Trade War: US-China relations burnout could trigger India’s rise from smoke

Tensions between the United States and China are escalating rapidly, with many U.S. observers are now turning to India to measure whether it can be an alternative to Beijing, according to TOI. The latest blow to the already tense contact occurred Tuesday when China ordered its airlines to stop delivering planes. Boeing expects nearly 9,000 delivery to China over the next 20 years, accounting for about 20% of its global order book. By comparison, India is expected to order about 2,400 Boeings by 2043.

Meanwhile, China is now facing tariffs of up to 245% of exports to the U.S., according to a White House fact sheet, after its retaliatory relocation to prevent further delivery of Boeing aircraft.

Also Read: China Faces Up to 245% Tariffs to U.S. Imports: White House Fact Sheet

India’s aviation sector has addressed global supply chain issues and may benefit from this consequence. Now, aircraft originally used for Chinese airlines can now be redirected to Indian buyers. Air India Express and Akasa will receive 737 Boeing aircraft, the same model ordered by Chinese airlines. In addition, China has been waiting for 11 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, another aircraft on Air India’s purchase list.

“We expect some of these aircraft, originally targeting Chinese airlines, will be redirected to Indian customers. A similar incident was witnessed the previous year, with the white tail (made for specific customers but purchased by others) being assigned to AI Express and Akasa,” an aviation industry expert told TOI.

China’s orders also require the suspension of purchase of aircraft-related equipment and parts. The move is seen as a computing risk promoting its domestic aerospace sector, led by China’s State-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC), which aims to challenge Boeing and Airbus’ dominance.
Beijing’s position is seen as retaliation against 145% tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, which the White House now says is 245%. However, the US response has always been one of the concerns. Commentators worry that Trump has misunderstood by isolating China without forming alliances with his allies. Rather than solidify global support, he seems to have alienated most of the world, including close European partners.
A viral meme depicts Trump saying “I hold the card” and Xi Jinping’s answer to “cards made in China” grabbing the popularity of emotions. Although the two countries are expected to face economic pressures of conflict, many believe China is in a stronger position and is more resilient than the Trump administration considers.
In this ever-changing landscape, India is seen as a possible profiter in the trade conflict. The New York Times story asked: “Is India ready to intervene in China?” Although Trump’s trade war may be beneficial to New Delhi, doubts remain India’s ability to become a manufacturing hub. Challenges such as shortage of skilled workers, inadequate infrastructure, tangled supply chains and bureaucratic delays still hinder their progress.

Even so, tough advocates of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign will still replace China with India in key areas such as medicines. Trump initially blocked whether to impose tariffs on drug imports, but later filed a review.

The president’s shifting stance in key sectors, including cars, has sparked allegations of favoritism and internal transactions. As the trade conflict expands, the United States seems increasingly uneasy compared to China and the rest of the world. On Monday, a defensive Trump of Trump said he would not change his mind, but rather “a very flexible person.” He has since suggested more trucks from tariffs to covering up the U.S. auto industry. At the same time, the US $42 billion toy industry relies on Chinese suppliers and also requires exemptions, believing that toys are crucial to children’s development.

Among liberal commentators, there is growing suspicion that Trump is actually occupying China. Some people think that Trump seems to be in trouble. The Chinese president’s high-profile visit to Vietnam and Malaysia has attracted further attention. “What if you start a trade war with China and lose? If after angering the rest of the world and taking tariffs on them, you will also make China look stronger, more reliable, more visionary, and more strategic, in all of these other countries looking for countries that are now seeking to withdraw from the unreliable consequences of U.S. hegemony?” asked Liberal podcast Ezra Klein.

Despite growing anxiety, Trump tried to make a reconciliational tone. He pointed to Xi Jinping and said, “I like him. He likes me. I mean, you know, who knows?”

Chinese social media responded with a wave of ridicule, full of memes, cartoons and videos. A widely shared meme shows Xi holding a pair of aces while Trump holding two and seven – the weakest hand in poker.

According to the Financial Times, the distrust arises from Trump’s trade and geopolitical war has reached a certain level, with the European Commission reportedly sending burner phones and basic laptops to some employees heading to Washington for the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meeting. This cautious prudence, usually reserved for visiting China, underscores the deepening uneasiness of Washington’s current posture.

(with TOI input)

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